Mike Leach and his air raid offense stormed on to the SEC landscape with a huge upset over defending national champion LSU, prompting everyone to hop on the Mississippi State bandwagon. But then, the wheels fell off and the Bulldogs have dropped three in a row, both SU and ATS.
Now, they’ll have to contend with one of the country’s actual best passing attacks in Alabama, but the Crimson Tide have lost a key piece in future NFL wideout Jaylen Waddle.
How will the Tide adjust? Find out our thoughts as we look at our best college football predictions for Mississippi State at Alabama, with kickoff scheduled for Saturday, October 31 at 7:00 ET in Tuscaloosa.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide betting preview
Weather
It should be a beautiful night for football in Alabama, as the forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures hovering around the 60 mark for kickoff. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Mississippi State: Kylin Hill RB (Questionable).
Alabama: Brian Robinson Jr. RB (Questionable), Labryan Ray DL (Questionable), Carl Tucker TE (Questionable), Miller Forristall TE (Questionable), Jaylen Waddle WR (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Times sure have changed over the last few years in Tuscaloosa, and the SEC in general. A conference once known for running backs and stingy defenses now airs it out like the Big 12. One of the byproducts is that Alabama has gone Over the total in five of its last six games. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Alabama.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Mississippi State was obviously going to get some inflated value after its big win as two-touchdown underdogs over LSU five weeks ago. But it was hard to see them falling back to Earth this fast.
The Bulldogs have lost three straight games SU and ATS as the offense that looked so good against LSU has stumbled. QB K.J. Costello threw for an SEC record 623 yards in that opening game against the Tigers but has just 643 yards — with just one touchdown and eight picks — in the three games since.
Costello is now in a QB battle with freshman Will Rogers, but whoever is throwing the ball for the bulldogs will have the chance to put up some yards against an Alabama pass defense that is allowing nearly 280 yards per game through the air.
Meanwhile, it is Alabama, for my money, who had the best passing game in the country. Or at least it did before Jaylen Waddle broke his ankle and is now done for the year. But the Crimson Tide still might have the best passing offense with Mac Jones only tossing the ball to the likes of Devonta Smith and John Metchie III.
So, look for a few more runs for the beast that is RB Najee Harris and maybe look to get TE Miller Forristall more involved. This also may be a bit of a letdown spot for Bama, with their bye followed by a date with LSU on the horizon. The Tide will roll to their sixth straight win, but with Mississippi State coming in with an extra week to prepare, look for the Bulldogs to cover the big spread.
PREDICTION: Mississippi State +31.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This one is pretty straightforward. Mac Jones is doing one hell of a Tua Tagovailoa impersonation and is even evoking comparisons to Joe Burrow’s 2019 campaign. The Crimson Tide QB is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes for 1,905 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. Obviously, losing Waddle is a big blow but it shouldn’t be a problem against Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs allowed LSU’s Myles Brennan to throw for 345 in their season opener and since then the defense has put up some solid numbers despite the 0-3 record. However, they haven’t really faced an offense anywhere near the caliber of Alabama. Now, they’ll have to face a Crimson Tide offense that has Jones, along with balance from a dominant running game, and is scoring 48.4 points per contest.
Put it this way: if Bama can put up 41 points on Georgia’s defense, then even without Waddle the Tide should get close to their season average here. If Leach can conjure up three scores this one should go Over—we think he can.
PREDICTION: Over 63.5 (-110)
First-half total pick
Alabama continued its first-half dominance last week against Tennessee, getting out to a 24-10 lead before heading into the break, and the Crimson Tide are now averaging 26.4 first-half points per game this season.
At the same time, the Tide are giving up 14.4 first-half points per game to their opponents, compared to 12.2 in the second half. So, if you’re going to score on Alabama, you better do it early before Nick Saban can make halftime adjustments. Look for this one to light up the scoreboard early and often and take the Over on the first-half total.
PREDICTION: First-half total Over 34 (-110)
Mississippi State vs Alabama betting card
- Mississippi State +31.5 (-110)
- Over 63.5 (-110)
- First-half total Over 34 (-110)
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