The Mountain West returned last week, and this week we get treated to one of the conference’s best rivalries when the Nevada Wolf Pack visit the UNLV Rebels in the battle for the Freemont Cannon.
The Rebels have won this matchup as underdogs each of the past two seasons and they’ll have to pull off another upset if they want to make it three in a row, getting 14 points from oddsmakers in this one.
Let’s take a look at our best college football predictions for Nevada at UNLV, with kickoff scheduled for Saturday, October 31 at 10:30 ET.
Nevada Wolfpack at UNLV Rebels betting preview
Weather
It should be a beautiful night for football in dessert. The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s and minimal wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Nevada: Lawson Hall LB (Questionable), Elijah Cooks WR (Questionable), Toa Taua RB (Questionable), Moses Landis (Questionable).
UNLV: Noah Bean TE (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Rivalries tend to bring out the best in underdogs, and the battle for the Freemont Cannon has been no exception with the underdog going 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Nevada vs. UNLV.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Nevada opened their season with an impressive showing in the passing game during their 37-34 overtime victory as 3-point home underdogs against what should be a strong Wyoming pass defense this season.
QB Carson Strong was outstanding, going 39-52, throwing for 420 yards with four touchdowns and no picks. But Nevada has some room for improvement on defense. The Wolf Pack led Wyoming 28-6 before letting the Cowboys storm back to tie the game as the fourth quarter wound down.
Meanwhile, UNLV is coming off a tough 34-6 beatdown at the hands of San Diego State. It’s probably not the start new head coach Marcus Arroyo – the former offensive coordinator at Oregon - was looking for. But we can give the Rebels a bit of a break, the Aztec defense is special and will be one of the best in the country, plus a slow start for a rebuilding team should almost be expected.
Despite the tough matchup, star RB Charles Williams still managed 80 yards rushing on 20 carries in that game, and Saturday he should have a few more holes to run through against a Wolf Pack team that he gashed for 138 yards and a score on 20 carries last season.
Nevada is the better of these two teams, but they were the last two years and lost those, too. The Wolf Pack was also penalized 12 times and turned over the ball twice. Not something you want to do in a rivalry game. The Wolf Pack should end their drought and take home the Freemont Cannon, but not by 14 points.
PREDICTION: UNLV +14 (-110)
Over/Under pick
That total for this matchup is sitting at a nice, round number of 60. Now, each of the last two Rebels’ upsets went Over the number, but just barely, and those games averaged a combined total of 63 points. While you can expect UNLV to perform a little better on offense, their lack of identity at the quarterback position could be what holds this game below the number.
Senior QB Max Gilliam is currently the guy, but has completed just 55 percent of his passes and is averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt during his career at UNLV. It will be interesting to see if TCU transfer Justin Rogers gets a shot. Add in the fact that the Rebels top two tight ends could miss this game, and it could mean that UNLV won’t be able to do its share when it comes to going Over the total.
PREDICTION: Under 60 (-110)
First Score Prop Pick
Nevada started its game against Wyoming on the right foot, with Strong hitting WR Troy Horton for a 26-yard touchdown pass. As noted, that was Strong’s first of four that day, and the Wolf Pack QB should have another good start in this one. In last year’s matchup against UNLV, Strong mounted a furious comeback that came up just short, but ended the day with 351 passing yards.
Even if you take into account how good San Diego State’s defense is, the issues at QB for UNLV are cause for concern. Last season, the Rebels averaged 5.3 first-quarter points per game and have likely taken a step back. Take the Wolf Pack to open the scoring with a major.
PREDICTION: First Score - Nevada TD (+125)
Nevada vs UNLV betting card
- UNLV +14 (-110)
- Under 60 (-110)
- First Score - Nevada TD (+125)
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