The Florida Gators are traveling to Baton Rouge for some revenge. Last year, a really inconsistent LSU Tigers team killed the Gators’ dream of earning a chance at the College Football Playoff with a shocking victory in a game that was ultimately decided by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.
While Florida likely won’t have a chance at a CFP this season, getting a road win against LSU will be important for an SEC title chance and bowl eligibility.
Find out if we like the Gators as double-digit favorites in our best free college football picks and predictions for Florida vs. LSU on October 16.
Florida vs LSU odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line has flipped, with the Gators briefly opening as a slim underdog before soaring to a double-digit favorite. The line continues to rise, with Florida as big as a 12-point favorite at some books. The total has increased, too, going from 57.5 to 59.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Florida vs LSU picks
Picks made on 10/13/2021 at 9:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Florida vs LSU game info
• Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
• Date: Saturday, October 16, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Florida vs LSU betting preview
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Florida: Malik Davis RB (Questionable), Kaiir Elam CB (Questionable), Richard Gouraige OL (Questionable), Ventrell Miller LB (Out).
LSU: Andre Anthony DE (Out), Kayshon Boutte WR (Out), John Emery Jr. (Out), Major Burns CB (Questionable), Ali Gaye DE (Questionable), Glen Logan DE (Out), Eli Ricks CB (Out), Deion Smith WR (Questionable), Derek Stingley Jr. CB (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Florida vs. LSU.
Florida vs LSU predictions
LSU +12 (-110)
The oddsmakers have tempted me. The line once favored LSU and now has Florida favored by 12 points against a Tigers team that has been hit with the injury bug for a second straight season.
LSU won’t have the entire starting defensive line available and will be without its top two cornerbacks in Eli Ricks and Derek Stingley Jr. On top of that, star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte is done for the year with an ankle injury and starting running back John Emery Jr. never got to showcase his skills this year.
LSU looked terrible against Kentucky on the road last week. Kentucky’s offensive line absolutely pummeled the LSU front line and just embarrassed the Tigers every step of the way. They were not prepared and looked extremely out of sync offensively. Because of this, LSU is a 12-point underdog.
That said, 12 points still seems like too much. LSU never looked that bad on offense prior to that game and quarterback Max Johnson had thrown for three or more touchdowns in every single start of his career up until that loss to Kentucky.
The secondary won’t be much of an issue for LSU as Florida likes to run a whole lot more than pass with Emery Jones at quarterback. However, Florida’s offensive line hasn’t been all that powerful up front and that could lead to some big stops for LSU on the Tigers’ home field.
LSU could easily be 4-2 on the season but let a game against Auburn slip away and enter this matchup 3-3. They’ve had so many injuries and issues this season but with everyone calling for coach Ed Orgeron’s head, the Tigers are going to be prepared for this one.
Over 59.5 (-110)
Florida’s run game has been phenomenal behind Jones, who has rushed for 479 yards on 75 carries with two scores. The Gators have also had contributions from Malik Davis, who is injured but expects to play against LSU. He has 49 carries for 279 yards and three touchdowns. The Tigers consistently allow big plays down the field and this game won’t be any different.
Meanwhile, Florida’s coverage has been awful this season and the team has also struggled to tackle in the open field. LSU, without Boutte and potentially Deion Smith, will still take advantage of Florida’s secondary and score points. The LSU offensive line should be able to protect against a really powerful Florida pass rush.
If that happens, the Tigers will have a big day offensively, even without their biggest weapons on the field. Take the Over, which is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head games and 4-0 in LSU's past four games as an underdog.
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