Looking at the national championship odds, it may look like the Ohio State Buckeyes are far and away frontrunners to win a back-to-back title, listed at +250 at FanDuel.
However, much of that mark is based on the Buckeyes’ path to the College Football Playoff.
At 7-0, Ohio State would have to lose two of its remaining five regular-season games to even begin to worry about missing the Playoff. The Buckeyes’ next four opponents are a combined 3-13 in Big Ten play. There is no worry that Ohio State will miss the Playoff.
Meanwhile, Alabama — listed at +650 in the national championship odds — has both a loss and two ranked opponents ahead of it before the season-ending Iron Bowl. As unlikely as it is that the Tide could miss the Playoff, that possibility does directly impact their title odds.
Realizing that, one can quickly see an argument that once in the Playoff, Alabama will have odds similar to Ohio State’s, though likely still a touch below the Buckeyes on the odds board.
Let us all hope those two meet in the national championship. The matchup between Alabama’s offense and Ohio State’s defense would demand your utmost attention...
College football Week 9 preview and betting news
- Defense Where It Matters Most
- Offense Where It Matters Most
- Bonus Bet No. 1
- Speaking of No TDs Scored
- Bonus Bet No. 2
Defense Where It Matters Most
Ohio State ranks No. 8 in the country in opposing quality drive rate, keeping foes out of scoring range on 72.9% of possessions. The Buckeyes also limit opponents to just 1.6 points on those few quality drives, No. 2 in the country, per CFB-graphs.com.
To put that dominance in more layman’s terms, Ohio State has allowed only two red zone touchdowns all season on 12 opposing red-zone trips.
There comes a point when schedule strength does not matter; a stat is just too impressive to diminish.
Red-zone stats do not perfectly correlate with quality drive stats; the latter factors in explosive scores and any possessions with a 1st-and-10 inside the 40-yard line, as that is the point at which a drive is statistically more likely to score than not.
But both sets of stats make it clear: Just because you are close to the end zone does not mean you are likely to score on Ohio State.
Offense Where It Matters Most
The Buckeyes may not face an offense capable of producing where it matters most, and if they do, it will be in the College Football Playoff.
Notre Dame ranks No. 5 in both quality drive rate (57.9% of possessions) and points per quality drive (4.54), but Alabama’s production warrants more notice, given the differences in schedule strength.
Alabama is No. 8 in quality drive rate (57.4%) and No. 7 in points per quality drive (4.42). When you have already played Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee, being in the top-10 in the country in the most important offensive stats warrants further praise.
I might not stop betting Alabama until February. https://t.co/ljoeOqCIHK pic.twitter.com/IERJwMe9Eu
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 24, 2025
Not to intentionally remove stats to better a description, but imagine if Alabama hadn't struggled in the Tallahassee rain in the season opener, when the Tide scored just 2.8 points on quality drives, getting into scoring position on half their possessions.
To again dabble in layman’s terms, Alabama sits No. 6 in the country in scoring percentage on trips into the red zone, failing to come away with points exactly once out of 32 trips. This is just not an offense that flinches as the field condenses.
If wanting to see the best vs. the best in January, the idea of Ohio State’s defense facing Alabama’s offense in the red zone should be a tantalizing one.
Bonus Bet No. 1
There is only one other offense, in addition to Notre Dame and Alabama, that is in the top 10 in both quality drive rate and points per quality drive: Utah.
There are five other defenses, in addition to Ohio State, ranking in the top 10 in both quality drive rate and points per quality drive: James Madison, Texas, Louisville, Oklahoma, and Indiana.
Louisville stands out, as the Cardinals are No. 5 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per defensive snap, and keeping opponents out of scoring territory on 73.7% of possessions should be distinctly noted. Even more impressive, No. 4 in the country in this regard, Louisville gives up only 2.02 points per quality drive.
The Cardinals host Boston College this weekend, an offense that scores the 11th-fewest points per quality drive.
That combination allows for bigger thoughts to be pondered, ones that could turn a blowout into a massive gambling stressor.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Boston College - No Touchdowns Scored (+475 at DraftKings)🏈
Speaking of No TDs Scored
Wisconsin has not reached the end zone in two weeks. Worse yet, those were both home games. But remember, Badgers fans, it can always get worse.
oh no
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 18, 2025
Wisconsin goes to Oregon next week. pic.twitter.com/zWNoWLsyan
As much fun as “No Touchdown” bets are, this is not going to be one. The value is gone. Things are too dire for Wisconsin.
Rather, this is an acknowledgement of how bad things are, a means of quantifying it.
Real quick, have you heard anyone praising Boston College’s offense this season? Has any part of you thought of the Eagles in a complimentary way this year? Now remember, that prop was as lofty as +475.
Wisconsin not scoring a touchdown this weekend is actually the likelihood. DraftKings has that priced at -105. The Badgers' team total is a comical 6.5, with FanDuel setting the Under at -102.
Going a third straight game without reaching the end zone would be a piece of ignominy that may drive Wisconsin fans to put whiskey into their old-fashioneds. Well, actually, okay, not that drastic.
Bonus Bet No. 2
Bowling Green looked decent to start the season, but since losing quarterback Drew Pyne to a leg injury, life has become wretched for the Falcons.
To hone in on our stats du jour today, Bowling Green produced quality drives on 13.3% of their possessions against Toledo and on 18.2% of their possessions against Central Michigan, both numbers that fit into the bottom 20th percentile of data.
In that latter game, Bowling Green managed a total of zero points per quality drive.
Without Pyne, the Falcons are floundering, and those scoring-territory failures are enough reason to boldly suggest...
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Kent State moneyline (+240 at Caesars)🏈
That game might end 3-6, but as long as it ends with the Flashes with the six, it is worth enjoying a drink and pondering.
Just not a brandy old-fashioned. Probably a dark lager here.
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