If a moment comes on Saturday when you are struck by how little action there is, if you for a moment just wonder why you are less enthralled in chaos than usual, do not think you are going crazy.
It is a lighter week. There are only 51 FBS vs. FBS games. Just 104 of the 136 FBS teams are playing this weekend. On Saturday, there are only 47 FBS vs. FBS games.
But that doesn't mean there aren't some great college football picks to enjoy!
College football Week 5 preview and betting news
- A Light Week
- Unders and Dive Bars
- Bonus Bet No. 1
- On Dopamine
- Bonus Bet No. 2
A Light Week
This is the cost of a season with two idle weeks for nearly every team, a result of the third Thursday in November (Thanksgiving) landing a few days later than most years. The perk is that we get an additional week in the regular season, and you have chances like this weekend to focus on teams you might not usually pay as much attention to.
The risk is that you build your betting slip just as heavily as always. You do not need to. In fact, you should not.
Show some caution. Approach each individual game as you normally would. You are not bored, you are prudent.
Unders and Dive Bars
Cocktail bars have seen a boom in recent years. Yours truly is known to enjoy a Sazerac down the street or a Negroni most anywhere.
Cocktail bars are shiny. The drinks are pretty. Your newest outfit will get complimented at least once. It all lends itself to social media quite conveniently.
Dive bars are poorly lit. (Hey, that is where I look best.) The drinks are cheap. (Hey, that is what I can afford.) Dirty shirts are referred to as “cleanest” among customers. (Go ahead, scoff at a Kris Kristofferson lyric, I dare ya.) Photos of a mug of Hamm’s and a bump of Tullamore Dew rarely trend well on social media.
Absolutely and entirely unrelated, Over bets have seen a boom in recent years. Yours truly is known to enjoy a Team Total Over (Kansas Team Total Over 31.5 available at -104 at FanDuel) against a defense with passing game woes or a quarterback touchdown passes Over to go along with it (USC QB Jayden Maiava Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns available at +170 at BetMGM).
Overs are shiny. The games are exciting on paper. The most casual football fan at the bar understands to cheer for touchdowns. It all lends itself to social media quite conveniently.
Unders are plodding. The games are supposedly boring (but often comical). It is not exactly riveting conversation to talk about an LSU linebacker’s run fit or how Penn State forces teams to give up on the pass in part because of its ruthless defensive line. Thoughts of Georgia struggling to score because it downgraded at quarterback does not have widespread agreement.
🔸No one wants to throw on Alabama's defense.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 24, 2025
🔸Georgia's quarterback is Gunner Stockton.
🔸Meanwhile, Bama is ruthless in converting quality drives, better than Georgia even if Georgia is good in that regard.
Alabama moneyline: https://t.co/xM1rWaWmh4 pic.twitter.com/WRv02PUmmo
How many cocktail bars do you know that have been around for 30 years? You know more dive bars like that, don’t you?
Folks, the dive bar might be boring on the surface, but nothing is more exciting than cashing a winning bet.
Bonus Bet No. 1
And if you want to make that winning bet more exciting, if you really want to fly near the surface of the sun (“Careful, Icarus.”), then ponder a no-touchdown market.
The one here is going to sound absurd. Let’s acknowledge that outright. But there is logic, and as long as there is genuine logic behind a bet, it is a bet worth making.
Penn State forces opponents to run the ball, mostly by limiting successes on dropbacks, No. 19 in the country in defensive passing success rate, per cfb-graphs.com. But the Nittany Lions are even better defensively against the run, which also happens to be the lesser half of Oregon’s offense.
When did Unders become boring?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 26, 2025
When did we start turning up our noses to excellent defensive lines?
When did we stop loving top-tier backfields?
Expect plenty of running in Oregon vs. Penn State.
Bet the Under.
Live the wild life with me. https://t.co/xM1rWaWmh4 pic.twitter.com/EHHe2Qm9kU
If Penn State finds an early lead, then the Ducks will be in trouble, the Nittany Lions’ elite defensive line able to pin its ears back and chase quarterback Dante Moore. Do that a time or two, and this game could be out of hand.
That is not an impossible game state. Maybe not likely, but not impossible.
It is, effectively, how Penn State has held its three opponents thus far to no touchdowns in the first 59 minutes of each game. Such a garbage-time touchdown would not be gifted to Oregon.
Is this likely? No. Is it more likely than 30-to-1 odds suggest? Quite possibly. You want an Under bet that makes you feel alive? Careful, Icarus.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Oregon No Touchdown (+3000 at DraftKings for 0.1u)🏈
On Dopamine
At its core, the worry about gambling is the dopamine attachment that then leads to compulsive gambling and eventually life-changing mistakes. Your goal should be to remove as much dopamine from this endeavor as possible. Delaying the dopamine return is one of the reasons placing your college football bets on Sunday carries great value.
Another piece of responsible gambling is finding your dopamine elsewhere. Perhaps you bike to play pick-up hoops before editing video from courtside.
Some days you just gotta pretend the court is your office for a while ... pic.twitter.com/q5JPGorsH8
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 25, 2025
That was not solely an attempt to justify including the new bike as a work expense on tax forms. Work-life balance goes beyond the obvious; it can also balance your dopamine. Biking to play pick-up hoops was being a responsible gambler.
As was advocating for the Under in LSU vs. Mississippi, a video edited after winning that pick-up game.
The Over in that game is popular because Lane Kiffin tweeted, “Take the over,” after his daughter publicly announced she is dating LSU linebacker Whit Weeks.
Do you know how Lane Kiffin makes sure to find his dopamine elsewhere? By trolling people online.
Bonus Bet No. 2
The best part about that bike ride, pick-up game, and subsequent video editing was the sunlight. It may be warmer than it should be in late September, and some of us know we look best in a cardigan, but that sunlight is a boost, nonetheless.
It is one of the many reasons Northwestern’s temporary stadium on the shores of Lake Michigan is such a delight. A stiff breeze, the sun in your face, a view of a lake that looks like an ocean, all while watching a football game?
Delightful.
In seven games along the shores of Lake Michigan, six regulations have cashed their Unders, including both games this season. And now Northwestern invites UCLA? There may not be a matchup of two worse offenses in the country this weekend.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: UCLA vs. Northwestern Under 45.5 (-110 at DraftKings)🏈
If the idea of a 21-10 game on the shores of Lake Michigan does not bring you a smile, then you should not sit down next to me at the dive bar.
If, however, you hear that and think 13-3 sounds even better, then you can feel free to take a sip of my Tully. It is within your reach for a reason.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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