I may preach, “Time is a social construct,” more than anyone, usually at a blackjack table as the sun comes up in Las Vegas, but also often when discussing college football schedules. But even I fell deceived by that social construct’s confusion.
Allow the following case study into Notre Dame’s defense to illustrate those time-conjured traps while also opening the door to a significant profit in my college football picks.
Notre Dame’s defense was ridiculed at the start of the year, struggling against Miami before struggling immensely against Texas A&M, and then allowing 30 points to Purdue.
However, that third moment was actually an encouraging one, and the Irish defense has developed into the force that was long expected.
College football Week 10 preview and betting news
- Week Over Week Success
- Order of Operations Hiding These Realities
- Bonus Bet No. 1
- A Prudent Shotgun Approach to Murder
- Bonus Bet No. 2
Week Over Week Success
Advanced stats emphasize how the Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense has found its groove, posting a top 40% performance in five straight games, per CFB-graphs.com, with the win a couple of weeks ago against North Carolina State being the most impressive.
Four straight opponents have fallen short of their Team Totals and by an average of 10.25 points.
No matter the opponents — not that Arkansas, Boise State, NC State, and USC make up really all that laughable of a stretch — consistently worsening their lives on a snap-to-snap basis while also removing the spectres of chunk plays is something warranting note.
Laugh at Brian Kelly all you want these days — only Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry should be laughed at more — but Kelly was right in his closing years at Notre Dame when he would regularly point out, “Winning is hard.” The Irish were 42-0 outright as favorites in Kelly’s last four seasons in South Bend.
"Gov. addresses SNAP benefits as government shutdown continues"https://t.co/gfUTpQXO35
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 29, 2025
Winning every week is hard, as is offering up dominant defense every week.
Doing so is reason enough to expect greater things from Notre Dame, as evidenced by the rapid decline in Irish championship odds at sportsbooks, which have dropped to +1100 at FanDuel, down from +2500 just two games ago.
Order of Operations Hiding These Realities
If the Irish had opened with this kind of stretch and then stumbled against Miami and Texas A&M, the narrative would have been that Notre Dame met quality opposition and now needs to learn from it.
Notre Dame’s Playoff chances would be worse — sitting at -325 right now to make the Playoff, the Irish are very much helped by the narrative value of a presumed 10-game winning streak — but its defense would still have some positive reputation to relish.
Instead, those opening two-plus performances left the world writing off that defense, including yours truly. I had stopped actively pondering a fifth annual “Do you want to see a murder?” walloping from the Irish.
Pulling content for a nonsense page gave reason to find this "Do you want to see a murder?" clip.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) July 16, 2025
The alt line of -34.5 cashed easily as Notre Dame beat Florida St 52-3
What is the "Do you want to see a murder?" game this ND November?
at BC
v Navy
at Pitt
v Syracuse
at Stanford https://t.co/1YJBh6ISb8
Those four previous “murders” each turned a profit. Notre Dame’s pass rush unnerved each quarterback, leading to massive mistakes that turned blowouts into memorable shatterings.
"Do you wanna see a murder" Year One, Notre Dame at Stanford: Tanner McKee went 20-of-25 for 172 yards and a TD.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 10, 2024
Year Two, 2022 v BC: Emmett Morehead 9-of-22, 117 yards, 3 ints.
2023 v Pitt: Christian Veilleux 14-29, 127, 4 ints.
Tonight, FSU QBs: 6-of-17, 51 yards, 1 int. https://t.co/wbYlG5s9uJ
Buck the social construct. Remember, time is better viewed through a “Jeremy Bearimy” lens. Know that Venmo does not accept captions such as “Murder Inc.” even though a financial institution masquerading as a social media platform should have a better sense of humor.
Because the Irish defense has found its previous form, Chris Ash is unlocking some of the aggression that made Al Golden such a terror as Notre Dame’s defensive coordinator. It is quite possible Ash never struggled to find it; he simply had a new roster and faced two Playoff contenders to open the season.
Bonus Bet No. 1
This exact bet in this exact space failed a week ago. But its premise holds, and this exact opponent’s failing is what has driven the four previous iterations of “Do you want to see a murder?”
When an opponent already struggles in scoring territory, facing an aggressive Notre Dame defense is going to make that life only worse, especially when the Irish offense can stake an early lead. That offense is more explosive this year than in any of the previous ones, ranking No. 4 in expected points added (EPA) per snap.
An early lead will then allow Notre Dame’s defense to focus solely on the Boston College Eagles' passing attack, one that is less effective than all of the past four Irish opponents but still throws more often than those opponents prefer to.
Only USC found any success through the air against Notre Dame, and the Trojans enjoy one of the best passing offenses in the country.
The Eagles do not.
So, as the Irish defense dials up on only Boston College’s passing attack, life will get ugly.
Ugly is already a goal beyond the Eagles in scoring territory, ranking No. 118 in the country in points per quality drive at just 2.68, enjoying quality drives on just 38.3% of possessions.
Notably, 2024 Florida State scored 2.89 points per quality drive, while enjoying quality drives on 27.9% of possessions, before facing Notre Dame. In 2023, Pittsburgh’s numbers were 4.00 points and 33.7% of possessions. In 2022, Boston College again was a 2.45 points on 36.0% of possessions.
Okay, I'm convinced. Full murder.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 8, 2024
1) @statsowar's graph for BC at ND in 22.
2) for Pitt at ND in 23.
3) For Florida State at ND this week.
Focus on the top-left red and the top-right blue.
That's wretched offense vs great defense.
The worst offense of these 3 vs the best defense. pic.twitter.com/oUB8W2ON08
Those three scored a total of 10 points against the Irish.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Boston College - No Touchdowns Scored (+425 at DraftKings)🏈
A Prudent Shotgun Approach to Murder
Flukes happen. Notre Dame should dominate this game for 60 minutes. But if for only 59 minutes, that could ruin the above No Touchdowns bet as well as the alternate spread thought to come.
I will split two or three units among a handful of bets. They all may win. However, if a fluke becomes a reality, then a profit should still be enjoyed.
As Florida State last year threw for 88 yards and two interceptions on 10-of-26 passing, the Seminoles somehow avoided giving up any defensive or special teams touchdowns while also limiting Notre Dame’s biggest names.
All in a 52-3 loss.
The alternate spread bets turned the afternoon into a profit despite those props falling short. The shotgun approach bettered the day.
With that in mind, some prop bets to consider as further descriptors in this game of Clue …
🔹Will Pauling anytime touchdown (+155 at FanDuel)
🔹Notre Dame to record a defensive or special teams touchdown (+500 at DraftKings)
🔹Notre Dame 1H -20.5 (+135 at DraftKings)
🔹CJ Carr 3+ touchdown passes (+222 at DraftKings)
🔹Jeremiyah Love 3+ touchdowns (+195 at FanDuel)
Bonus Bet No. 2
What is the best reason to believe Boston College may survive Saturday with an ounce of dignity remaining? This defense ranks in the bottom 10 in the country against both the rush and the pass. Its offense is better only in that it is in the bottom 20 in both regards.
The Eagles’ best hope is that … nope, there is no hope.
Not when Grayson James threw two interceptions against Louisville last week on 46 pass attempts and is now about to face a defense that has averaged one interception on every 19 opposing pass attempts.
The Irish have picked off at least one pass in every game since their season opener at Miami. Memorably, safety Adon Shuler was too conservative in snagging one that evening.
Those inevitable interceptions on Saturday lend credibility to betting on a blowout becoming catastrophic.
🏈Bonus pick from Douglas: Notre Dame -41.5 (+320 at FanDuel)🏈
Find some Irish whiskey to mourn Bill O’Brien’s Boston College tenure. It will not officially end this weekend, but this is when it dies.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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