Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chippewas Pull Off Upset

Two struggling MAC West squads will look for much-needed victories on Wednesday when the Central Michigan Chippewas take on the Northern Illinois Huskies.

Both the Chippewas and the Huskies enter Wednesday’s game with identical 2-6 records, and both teams are coming off of losses last week. 

While neither team has impressed much this season, there’s definitely a side that has shown a bit more over its first eight games, even in its losses. We’ll break down who should come out on top in our college football betting picks and predictions for Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois on November 2.

Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois best odds

Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois picks and predictions

Last season, Northern Illinois and Central Michigan battled it out until the final week in the race for the MAC West Division title. The Huskies won the division based on a 39-38 head-to-head victory, and went on to win the MAC title. Both teams went to bowl games, with the Chippewas winning the Sun Bowl, while the Huskies came up short to the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in the Cure Bowl.

Both teams have fallen on hard times in 2022. There will be no divisional title for either of these schools, and even bowl eligibility seems unlikely. For two teams with a relatively strong history of mid-major success, the season is already a disappointment.

The Chippewas have at least been able to hang around a bit against some strong competition. Central Michigan scored 44 points against the Oklahoma State Cowboys to open its season, but gave up 58 to lose by two scores. The Chippewas were within a touchdown at the half against the Penn State Nittany Lions, but ultimately lost 33-14. 

Since that opening loss to Oklahoma State, Central Michigan has played reasonably solid defense. In MAC play, the Chippewas have allowed 29.3 points per game, and have been relatively solid against the run, allowing an average of just 123.1 rushing yards to opponents this year. That will be important against a Northern Illinois offense that runs for over 200 yards a game.

While the Huskies have been somewhat capable on offense, they have struggled to stop their opponents from scoring. Northern Illinois is allowing 33 points per game, with even weak opposition like the FCS Eastern Illinois Panthers managing to put up 27 points against the Huskies. 

Northern Illinois has particularly struggled against the pass, allowing an average of 268.3 yards per game through the air. It’s unclear who the Chippewas will start at quarterback on Wednesday, as Daniel Richardson and freshman Jase Bauer both took snaps in Central Michigan’s loss to the Bowling Green Falcons.

Either way, the Huskies will have to deal with a threat: Richardson has thrown for 13 touchdowns against just four interceptions, while Bauer is a dual threat who ran for two touchdowns earlier this year against the Bucknell Bison.

Neither team has been good or consistent this year, so there are lots of plausible outcomes on Wednesday. However, the Chippewas have shown more against better teams, and have the weapons that are most likely to break open a game. 

That makes Central Michigan the clear pick here. And while the Chippewas are the underdog, I feel good about taking them on the moneyline. Take Central Michigan, and don’t worry about the points — just get the best odds you can for the Chippewas to win outright.

My best bet: Central Michigan moneyline (+165 at bet365)

Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois spread analysis

Northern Illinois opened the game as a 3.5-point favorite, and that line has remained steady as of Monday afternoon. That’s a dangerous number, as it requires the Huskies to win by over a field goal in a game in which I think Central Michigan has an excellent chance of winning straight up.

Neither team has played well against the spread this season. The Huskies are 3-5 ATS — including 0-3 at home — while the Chippewas have gone 2-5-1 ATS on the season. 

There aren’t a lot of strengths to spotlight for these teams, but there is one critical matchup that I talked about a bit above. Northern Illinois has been better than Central Michigan on offense this year, and that’s in large part due to a running attack that ranks 22nd in the country. Top rushers Harrison Waylee and Antario Brown have combined for over 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.

That said, Central Michigan has been stout against the run, with opponents averaging only 3.25 yards per rush against the Chippewas. That should allow Central Michigan to maintain the edge in this matchup. While I’m recommending taking the moneyline, Central Michigan +3.5 is also a solid bet, as that’s a great number to get in what should be a close game.

Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois Over/Under analysis

The total for this game opened at 56. There’s been some slight downward movement since then, but most sites currently have their main Over/Under set at 55.5. 

Northern Illinois has hit the Over in six of its eight games this season, with final totals ranging from 41 to 84. However, it has come in under the total — and under 50 points — in each of its last two games.

While the Huskies have been all over the place in their totals, Central Michigan has consistently played under that number. With the exception of the shootout against Oklahoma State, the Chippewas haven’t played a game with a total over 62. That came in their second contest; they’ve now played six straight games with totals of 55 or less. 

Once again, it’s worth noting that Central Michigan’s defense lines up well with the thing Northern Illinois does best, which is running the ball. Meanwhile, the Chippewas average just 25.3 points per game on offense, so they’re not exactly in prime position to exploit the Huskies relatively porous defensive unit that is allowing 33 points per game.

Overall, this matchup doesn’t seem like one that will generate a whole lot of points. Looking at how these teams have been playing, especially over the past couple weeks, the Under is the smart play here. 

Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois betting trend to know

Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. Northern Illinois. Find more NCAA betting trends for Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois.

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