College Football Player Props and Best Bets for Week 8: KJ Better Than Okay vs Mississippi State

Prop bet #1: Jefferson authors signature performance

Things haven’t gone well for the Arkansas Razorbacks this season. Sitting at 2-5 overall and 0-4 in SEC play, head coach Sam Pittman has made it clear to his team — Saturday is a must-win game. 

Star running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders has experienced swelling in his knee since the season's first game. He tried to return and give it a go against Mississippi, but he was feeling discomfort and will be sidelined again in Week 8 and possibly going forward. Combine the loss of a star running back with the offensive line's poor play, and it’s evident that the offensive responsibility will lie on the shoulders of quarterback KJ Jefferson. 

Saturday’s must-win game happens to come against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, another team in dire straits. Zach Arnett’s squad is 3-3 overall but 0-3 in conference play, and they’ve been atrocious on defense, ranking 107th in EPA per play and 119th in success rate. They’ve had a particular vulnerability in the secondary (127th in EPA per pass, 120th in passing success rate), so this looks like a get-right spot for Jefferson and his offense. 

The Bulldogs were recently torched for 297 passing yards and three touchdowns by lowly Western Michigan, a 2-5 MAC school averaging just over 200 passing yards per game. It marked the fourth time in five games against FBS teams that Mississippi State had surrendered at least 288 passing yards. The lone exception was against Alabama, when the Crimson Tide attempted just 13 passes, albeit for 13.7 yards per attempt. 

Pittman is calling this a must-win game because it is, and because he knows his team stands a good chance against this reeling Mississippi State squad and its porous defense. Jefferson’s rushing yardage prop (37.5), passing touchdown prop (1.5), and rushing TD prop (-120) all look like plays this week. The most reliable seems to be his passing yardage prop of 222.5, considering the Bulldogs have been repeatedly burned through the air this season. 

KJ Jefferson prop: Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: An offer you can’t refuse

Baylor Bears running back Dominic Richardson is listed with a rushing yardage prop of 43.5 ahead of his matchup with the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Oklahoma State transfer is averaging 43.6 rushing yards per game, so this line seems accurate if game logs are all that you look at when handicapping. Here’s the thing — Baylor has a bad offense and they rotate multiple backs, while Cincinnati’s clear strength defensively is up front, where it excels at stopping the run. 

The Bearcats have a strong defensive line led by Dontay Corleone, who was added to the Chuck Bednarik Award and Walter Camp Award watchlists this offseason and was PFF’s highest graded interior defensive lineman in the country last season. The Bearcats are allowing just 104.2 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per rush and have allowed no more than 125 yards on the ground in any game. 

Richardson has split carries with Richard Reese and Dawson Pendergrass this season and has just 55 rushing attempts in five games played. He’s received no more than 10 carries in any of his last three games, so he’s low volume, and he’s been ineffective as well by averaging 4.0 yards per carry — the lowest of the backfield trio. 

UCF has had a historically poor rushing defense, but even the Knights held Richardson below this number as he rushed 10 times for 37 yards while Reese did most of the damage with 16 carries for 100 yards. Richardson then followed that up with nine carries for 21 yards against a Texas Tech defense that ranks just 55th in EPA per rush. 

Baylor struggles to block (95th in line yards, 115th in stuff rate, 119th in power success rate) so there shouldn’t be many running lanes here against a stout Cincinnati front (15th in defensive line yards, third in stuff rate) that typically lives in opposing backfields (13th in front seven havoc). 

Give me Richardson’s Under for Week 8. 

Dominic Richardson prop: Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Buy low on Heisman winner

What are the books doing pricing a player like Caleb Williams with +155 odds to go over his passing touchdowns prop of 2.5 on Saturday? 

This is an overreactive line and it creates a buy-low opportunity on the reigning Heisman Trophy odds winner as folks have been quick to jump on his grave after a recent run of poor performance. Not so fast, my friend. 

First, let’s admit that Williams was not at his best last week, to say the least. He threw for just 199 yards on 37 attempts against Notre Dame and threw one touchdown compared to three interceptions. The week prior, he threw for 219 yards and a single touchdown against Arizona while adding three more with his legs. 

First off, he’s not playing on the road in a rivalry game against an elite defense this week. He’s playing at home against a team whom he threw for eight touchdowns against across two meetings last season. This is a game where USC should be ultra-focused to redeem last year’s defeats and create some ground in this year’s Pac-12 standings. 

Secondly, he scored four touchdowns against Arizona, and some folks are talking like he’s washed up and simply doesn’t have it anymore. I’m not so quick to rush to judgment and still believe Williams is one of the most talented college football players I’ve ever seen, so I’ll be happy to buy back at a reduced price in the prop market for Week 8’s showdown against the Utah Utes. 

Williams has thrown for at least three scores in all five of his other games this season (5-2) and did so in six of his last eight games (6-2) to end 2022. 

Utah’s defense is good, sure, but it also ranks 100th in passing explosiveness despite facing a very soft schedule of passing attacks in which either Florida or Oregon State posed the biggest threat through the air. It’s safe to say that this will be by far the toughest challenge of the season, and USC will look to hit some deep shots against a secondary that’s proven vulnerable to that at points. 

Starting safety Cole Bishop will be out for the first half after picking up a fourth-quarter targeting penalty against Cal. Cornerback is this defense’s weakest link, as starters Zemaiah Vaughn (61.9 coverage grade per PFF) and JaTravis Broughton (61) have both struggled while nickel back Tao Johnson (67.5) isn’t exactly a lockdown guy, either. 

Utah is very good against the run, however, so I expect Lincoln Riley to devise a plan where Williams looks to attack this Utah defense through the air to expose its weaknesses. 

Caleb Williams prop: Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+155 at BetMGM)