The college football regular season is a wrap, and we are onto conference championship weekend. We’ve got some blue blood clashes as well as some unexpected matchups. It should all be wild, and there is still plenty to determine when it comes to the College Football Playoff.
Could a team like Kennesaw State shock everyone and make the field? Will the Big 12 send two teams? And will Duke give the committee a crazy decision to make? My college football picks and best bets have a play on this trio of conference championship games.
And for even more conference championship picks, check out Douglas Famer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Conference Championship Week
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Kennesaw State -2.5 |
-110 |
 Bear Bachmeier Under 31.5 rushing yards |
-114 |
 Darian Mensah Over 251.5 passing yards |
-114 |
| 💲 All three parlayed | +572 |
Kennesaw State -2.5
Embrace the craziness that is the C-USA, where a team in just its second year in the FBS will take on a team in its third, as the Kennesaw State Owls take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks on Friday night.
Kennesaw State is an amazing story. The Owls' first season as an FBS team went about as badly as it could, in a 2-10 season, which included the firing of their head coach. But in comes Jerry Mack as the new HC with dual-threat QB Amari Odom transferred from FCS Wofford, and their fortunes have done a complete 180.
Kennesaw State went 9-3 this season and 7-1 in conference play. Behind Odom, who has thrown for 2,139 yards with 17 touchdowns to six interceptions - not to mention another 379 yards and seven scores on the ground - the Owls ranked a very respectable 51st in EPA per play.
Now, that lone conference loss came against, you guessed it, Jacksonville State, and is the reason Kennesaw State is the road team.
The Gamecocks won that game 35-26 as 3.5-point home underdogs. But looking beyond the box score, the first half of that game ended with an uncharacteristic bad pick from Odom, followed by a Hail Mary and a converted 2-point conversion to give Jacksonville State a 22-10 lead.
That game may have turned out differently if not for that, considering the Owls outgained the Gamecocks 579-451. That included 362 passing yards for Odom, who once again should be the difference here, going against a Jacksonville State secondary that can be burned. The Gamecocks defense ranks 82nd in EPA per dropback and 84th in success rate on dropbacks.
Back Odom and the Owls to get their revenge and win their first FBS conference title, covering this small spread in the process. Hooty Hoo!
Bear Bachmeier Under 31.5 Rushing Yards
Championship Saturday is going to be full of intrigue. Except maybe in the Big 12 blowout… err… Championship Game.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders will take on the BYU Cougars for the Big 12 title. It’s a rematch of a November 8 meeting in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders and their ferocious defensive line overwhelmed Bear Bachmeier and the Cougars in a 29-7 final.
That final score could have easily been 44-7. The Texas Tech offense stalled in the red zone a few times, settling for five field goals.
Led by David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez, the Red Raiders defense stymied the Cougars offense, holding them to 2.5 yards per carry while limiting Bachmeier to 23-for-38 passing for 188 yards with a touchdown and a pick.
That shouldn’t come as a shock for one of the best defenses in the country. The Red Raiders lead the nation in opponent EPA per play and are third in defensive success rate.
So, I’m not expecting BYU’s offense to suddenly improve with a venue change, especially since the change isn’t to Provo. Neither do oddsmakers, to be fair, who set this spread at 13.
But I’m locking in on a Bachmeier prop. The Red Raiders' awesome defensive front just overpowered the Cougars' offensive line. Now, they only sacked Bachmeier once, but they consistently collapsed the pocket to the point where there weren’t even holes to escape from, and he ended up with just 12 rushing yards.
Darian Mensah Over 251.5 Passing Yards
Darian Mensah. I’m ready to get hurt again.
Ever since the former Tulane star quarterback announced he was transferring to the Duke Blue Devils this past offseason, I was high on them. But it feels like every time I backed the Mensah and the Blue Devils this season, they came up short.
And if you asked head coach Manny Diaz before the season how he would feel about a 7-5 record, he probably would have told you this team could have been better.
But welcome to the ACC, where that record is good enough to get you into the conference championship game. Luckily for Duke, just two of those losses came against conference foes.
However, one of those foes was their opponent in the ACC Championship Game – the Virginia Cavaliers.
The Hoos limited Mensah to 18-of-35 passing for 213 yards. But this is an elite Duke offense that ranks 24th in EPA per dropback, 10th in quality drive rate, and 19th in points per quality drive.
The old saying is that you are never as bad as your worst day. Well, Mensah had his worst day vs. Virginia, but this is a guy who averaged 287.5 passing yards per game this season.
I am very tempted to take Duke as a moneyline dog here and let the CFP chaos ensue, but I’m going to stick with Mensah and his arm.
Mensah’s passing yards prop is 251.5, a number he's topped in nine of 12 games this season, and he’ll be throwing whether Duke is winning or losing.
Triple Option Parlay for Conference Championship Week
Kennesaw State -2.5
Bear Bachmeier Under 31.5 Rushing Yards
Darian Mensah Over 251.5 Passing Yards
My weekly Triple Option column is 18-21 this season for -4 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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