We have SEC football on a Saturday afternoon when the 6-0-0 No. 9-ranked Mississippi Rebels welcome the 3-3-0 Auburn Tigers to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Auburn is looking to shake a two-game losing streak, and Mississippi is undefeated and looking to challenge for the top spot in the SEC standings.
Who will win this Saturday SEC battle? Find out in my free best college football picks and predictions for this Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi Rebels Week 7 showdown on Saturday, October 15.
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Auburn vs Mississippi best odds
Auburn vs Mississippi picks and predictions
Mississippi opened as 15.5-point favorites, but that number has moved in the Tigers’ favor and presently sits where we will bet it at 14.5 points.
The Rebels have one of the top offensive units in the country and sophomore QB Jaxson Dart is having a decent season. The USC transfer has slung it for 1358 yards with eight TDs. That interception thing from last season hasn’t gone away just yet, and Dart is coming off a pair of picks last weekend vs Vanderbilt.
The sophomore sits behind as solid an O-Line as any in the college game, and that allows Dart to set up and find wideouts Jonathan Mingo, Malik Heath, and Jordan Watkins. The trio have combined for over 1,000 receiving yards with seven TD’s, but they’ll miss injured TE Michael Trigg and his three scoring catches.
Mississippi isn’t just a chuck-it-downfield offense, and frosh RB Quinshon Judkins has been sensational, scampering for 581 yards with eight scores, while junior RB Zach Evans has chipped in with 469 rushing yards with six TDs.
Auburn has a stout defense and is No. 15 in DVOA this season. It played Georgia tough for three quarters, but spent too much time on the field, the offense sputtered, and the Tigers lost by 32 points. Penn State was the only other school to excel offensively against Auburn, and the Tigers fell to the Nittany Lions at home, 42-12.
The Tigers pepper QBs with blitzes and all sorts of schemes, but the Mississippi O-Line is a unit of warriors and has allowed just one sack. Dart has chucked five interceptions, but the Tigers secondary isn’t very aggressive, and with only two picks this season, it’s unlikely they will add to that total.
Junior QB TJ Finley was injured in the Penn State game and hasn’t played since — he’s listed as questionable. Frosh QB Robby Ashford replaced him in the starting lineup with pedestrian stats, but of great concern is the five fumbles over the last two contests.
Ashford is reckless with the ball, and his miscues have kept what should be a very good offense undependable and frankly mediocre. WR Ja’Varrious Johnson is Ashford's main target, and RB Jarquez Hunter makes contributions as well.
Auburn does run the ball and RB Tank Bixby leads the way with 345 yards with four TDs. Ashford has amassed 275 yards and a TD, while Hunter has chipped in with 159 rushing yards and four TDs.
The Rebels’ defense is solid from top to bottom. Mississippi allows 18.1 first downs per contest while ranking 28th in defensive DVOA. It’s totaled 16 sacks and will punish a Tigers offensive line with 15 sacks allowed — and it won’t be pretty either. Every time it gets a chance, Mississippi will try to take the ball out of Ashford's hand, and from what I’ve seen of Ashford, it will likely succeed.
Auburn is no easy out, and especially that defense will put up a fight. Sadly for the Tigers, the Rebels offense has too much weaponry, the defense is tough, and with Dart beginning to feel comfortable in his cleats, Mississippi covers the spread.
My best bet: Mississippi -14.5 (-102 at Pinnacle)
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Auburn vs Mississippi spread analysis
I’ve already shared many thoughts on the spread, but I have a couple more for you to consider.
I contemplated taking Mississippi FH spread, and 7.5 points is a good number for that. The only problem would be the Auburn defense and how it fights out of the gate. I decided it was better to wait for Mississippi to cover late if necessary, because the Auburn offense is hard to trust with Ashford fumbling balls the way he has.
Finally, Auburn is 1-5-0 ATS this season, while the Rebels are 3-3-0 ATS. Mississippi covering the full spread is what is most likely to happen and why I laid the points.
Auburn vs Mississippi Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 54.5 and currently resides at 56 points. The current number might be a bit high considering the strength of the defenses alongside the respective QB’s miscues.
As far as the total is concerned, Auburn is 3-3-0 this season. The under is 4-2-0 through the Rebels’ first six contests.
Finally, the Under is 4-0-0 over their last four meetings and I think this game stays Under the oddsmakers’ number.
Auburn vs Mississippi betting trend to know
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Oklahoma.
Kansas vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, October 15, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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