Army vs Navy Best Bets, Predictions & Picks for Today, December 13

America’s Game — Army vs. Navy — is one of the great spectacles not just in college football, but in all of sports.

This year, the stakes are even higher, with the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy on the line when the rivals meet at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday, December 13.

Let's get into our best bets & Army vs. Navy predictions before kickoff comes at 3pm ET.

Army vs Navy predictions

• Navy -6.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
• Under 38.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
• Hellums o0.5 TD passes (+280 at FanDuel)
• Horvath to score 2+ TDs (+240 at FanDuel)

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Army vs Navy best bets

Navy -6.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Things can always get weird in rivalry games, particularly this one. Just look at how successful the underdog has been in this matchup in recent years. But Midshipman QB Blake Horvath was the difference last year, and I expect that to be the case again this year.

/ Under 38.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

For the uninitiated.

Unders are a remarkable 46-12-1 in meetings between service academies dating back to 2005 (as far back as Covers’ data goes). That’s a cash rate of nearly 80% — a number basically unheard of in sports betting.

But the trend became so prevalent and overbet that nearly all the value had been sucked out of it, to the point where this Army-Navy game had a closing total of just 28 two seasons ago.

Now, this trend has been successful for a few reasons. For starters, triple option offenses are running the football the large majority of the time and generally not very explosively. And no one knows how to defend the triple option better than the teams that run it. 

So, that results in a lot of four-yard runs, with the clock constantly moving, limiting overall possessions in the games. Hence all the Unders.

That has changed recently, thanks to guys like Bryson Daily last year for the Army Black Knights, and Blake Horvath the last two years for the Navy Midshipmen. But I can see a return to form for this trend this weekend.

Navy is coming off a fantastic season, going 9-2 and just missing out on the AAC Championship Game. OC Drew Cronin’s Wing-T variation, led by Horvath, resulted in Navy ranking seventh in offensive success rate this season.

Meanwhile, Army will be bowling with a 6-5 record. However, the Black Knights rank 92nd in success rate on rushes. 

If Navy can limit the explosive plays for Army, it will be hard for the Black Knights to consistently score in this one. The Midshipmen will control the game and bring back the Service Academy Unders in the process.

Army vs Navy TD pick

Blake Horvath to score 2+ touchdowns (+240 at FanDuel)

Not to be hyperbolic, but this may be the biggest game of Blake Horvath’s career.

The Navy Midshipman had slim Playoff hopes in their final two games of the regular season, and though the Midshipmen won both of those, their Playoff hopes largely died a week before that stretch run. Getting blown out without Horvath by Notre Dame oddly cost Navy the ground it needed to slide into the American title game.

He took 24 carries for 196 yards and two scores against the Army Black Knights last year, the 24 carries being a season-high by five. There is no amount of a beating Horvath will not endure in this moment.

He has rushed for multiple touchdowns in four of his 10 games against FBS competition this year, and all of those opponents had defenses that prevented opposing quality drives more often than Army does, ranked No. 130 in the country in opposing quality drive rate, per CFB-graphs.com.

Army vs Navy prop pick

Cale Hellums Over 0.5 TD passes (+280 at FanDuel)

Betting on Army quarterback Cale Hellums to throw a touchdown pass is very much a bet on an Over in this tradition as the result of the emotions in this rivalry. The Knights do not throw the ball as much as either of the other service academies do, but when Hellums does throw the ball, he does so with great explosiveness.

Army ranks No. 115 in the country in dropback success rate but No. 50 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, according to CFB-graphs.com. That discrepancy speaks to an explosive rate.

That has yielded only three touchdowns for Hellums this season, but three touchdowns on 35 completions is a decently encouraging trend. And when Army trots out every version of the option this weekend, some of those will feature downfield receivers.

This price is far too steep to turn away from.

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