An intriguing out-of-conference matchup welcomes us this weekend when Arizona State meets Mississippi State.
The two teams got easy wins last week. Arizona State looked pedestrian at times against FCS opponent Northern Arizona but still won by 20+, while Mississippi State covered against Southern Miss. We expect this one to be competitive throughout.
My Arizona State vs. Mississippi State predictions break it down here as I bring you my college football picks when the two teams meet Saturday, September 6.
Arizona State vs Mississippi State prediction
Arizona State vs Mississippi State best bet: Mississippi State +6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
You can point to Southern Miss, a new coach, and a new system—and you’d be right. Still, I was impressed.
Mississippi State went on the road, easily covered the spread, and finished with a 100% post-game win expectancy in a 34-17 win. Some had the Bulldogs on upset alert, but this was never close.
Southern Miss, a one-win team last year, isn’t Arizona State, a College Football Playoff team a season ago. That performance gives me confidence backing Mississippi State again here.
ASU isn’t the same team as last year. Multiple departures, most notably Cam Skattebo to the NFL, leave a major void. Like Ashton Jeanty for Boise State last season, his impact can’t be overstated because of his usage rate. This remains a good team, but not a great one.
Mississippi State can stay in this game by limiting explosive plays, just as they did last week with a +12.75 opponent-adjusted explosive play margin against what I believe to be a Southern Miss offense that has gone from flat-out bad to average in one offseason.
Sun Devils QB Sam Leavitt and WR Jordan Tyson are talented, but this offense leans heavily on chunk plays rather than sustained drives.
Maybe that changes with better run-game cohesion (from someone other than Leavitt), but for now, I’m betting it struggles against a Bulldogs defense trending up.
So as long as CB Jett Jefferson suits up, Mississippi State has the tools to control the big plays and cover.
Arizona State vs Mississippi State same-game parlay
Davon Booth was the bell cow for the Mississippi State backfield last week, and I suspect we’ll see a return to that here. Against Northern Arizona, ASU allowed a very alarming 0.11 EPA per rush.
I don’t expect much improvement against an SEC side.
In a different vein, the Bulldogs’ rushing defense was impressive last week, but the amount of volume Leavitt should get on designed runs in this one makes it a play—particularly when you consider what he did a year ago.
- Mississippi State +6.5
- Davon Booth Over 56.5 rushing yards
- Sam Leavitt Over 41.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Big Plays Pay Big Dividends
I’m also taking Leavitt to hit paydirt. Again, it comes down to a combination of volume and ability. I also think there will be a few situations where the pass coverage holds up for the Bulldogs, and he’ll have to improvise.
The final leg here is the fairly big money price on QB Blake Shapen to also score. I’m simply taking a flier on a player who has shown a willingness to run, as he had at least seven carries in every game he played last season.
- Mississippi State +6.5
- Davon Booth Over 56.5 rushing yards
- Sam Leavitt Over 41.5 rushing yards
- Sam Leavitt anytime TD
- Blake Shapen anytime TD
Arizona State vs Mississippi State odds
- Spread: Arizona State -6.5 (-110) | Mississippi State +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arizona State -225 | Mississippi State +184
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 (-115) | Under 58.5 (-105)
Arizona State vs Mississippi State trend to know
Arizona State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+9.60 Units / 51% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Arizona State vs Mississippi State.
How to watch Arizona State vs Mississippi State
| Location | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Date | Saturday, September 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
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