Appalachian State vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks and Predictions: Don't Mess With Texas

The Appalachian State Mountaineers came oh-so-close to a win against North Carolina last week. The yo-yos of that 63-61 chaos may have App State feeling a bit hungover as it heads to face the Texas A&M Aggies. Without homefield advantage this time, can the Mountaineers pull off an upset? The odds suggest it's exceedingly unlikely.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Appalachian State vs. Texas A&M on September 10, with kickoff set for 3:30 ET.

Appalachian State vs Texas A&M best odds

Appalachian State vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

It may seem odd taking the Under in a game involving a team that scored 40 points in one quarter last week — yes, you read that right, 40 of Appalachian State’s 61 points came in the final frame — but this line should never have moved up so much as a result of that game. This total opened at 49.5 points on Sunday at Circa Sports, and quickly leaped to 54.

Here’s a thought: Maybe North Carolina’s defense is just that bad. It also seems valid to praise Tar Heels’ sophomore quarterback Drake Maye. Without going too far into a North Carolina conversation, remember Maye was a five-star recruit committed to Alabama before he flipped his pledge to his homestate powerhouse. By recruiting grades, Maye was on the level of C.J. Stroud and Cade Klubnik. If either of them torched Appalachian State, would it immediately lead to such doubt of the Mountaineers? No, it would lead to praise of those quarterbacks.

Meanwhile, Florida A&M scored all of three points against Jackson State on Sunday, a week after putting 24 on the scoreboad against the Heels. Changing this total because of that shootout last weekend is a distinct overreaction.

Furthermore, Texas A&M is not exactly an offensive powerhouse. The Aggies struggled to find offensvie line cohesion early against Sam Houston State on Saturday, finishing the 31-0 win with only 110 yards on 32 rushes.

That 31-0 score may be all that's needed for this handicap. If A&M could score just 31 points against FCS-level Sam Houston State, then can it be trusted to crack 35 against a Sun Belt title contender? Falling short of 35 should doom this game to the Under. Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher crest that on occasion, but not all that frequently. In 33 games against FBS teams across the last three seasons, the Aggies have scored more than 35 points only 10 times, and three of those came against Group of Five teams decidedly less competitive than Appalachian State will be.

So for these purposes, let’s call that seven times out of 30 games. Relying on those odds would be foolish.

My best bet: Under 54.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Appalachian State vs Texas A&M betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

If expecting a lower-scoring game than this total suggests, than obviously a 19-point spread may be difficult for Texas A&M to cover. Difficult, but not impossible. In each of the last three seasons, the Aggies have won a game by at least 21 points despite not scoring more than 34 themselves.

On the flip side, Appalachian State has been held to fewer than 20 points only four times in the last three seasons, and three of those moments came at the hands of Billy Napier’s Louisiana. At then-No. 22 Miami last year, the Mountaineers scored 23. At South Carolina in 2019, they managed 20. Those are not outputs that will lead to a win this weekend, but they should be enough against the spread.

If nothing else, few on this Appalachian State squad will be cowed at Kyle Field. After all, the Mountaineers have a veteran roster led by Chase Brice, a sixth-year quarterback who previously played for Clemson and Duke, and they'll be significantly more prepared for this environment than Sam Houston State.

Over/Under analysis

Defense has been Texas A&M’s strength throughout Fisher’s tenure. The Aggies' vaunted D gave up just 15.9 points per game last season, and eight opponents were held to 20 points or less with four in single digits.

A&M also notched 39 sacks. Much of that production did matriculate, but the Aggies' defensive recruiting, particularly its defensive line recruiting, has rivaled Georgia’s the last few cycles. Texas A&M has signed five four-star defensive linemen the last two years and, including them, 11 four- or five-star defensive linemen in the last three recruiting classes.

Collectively they will make life miserable for Appalachian State quarterback Chase Brice, who did not even average two touchdown passes per game last year despite a high-scoring bowl game boosting his season totals.

Appalachian State vs Texas A&M game info

• Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Appalachian State vs Texas A&M key injuries

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Appalachian State vs Texas A&M betting trend to know

Nine of Texas A&M’s last 10 games against FBS opponents in August and September have gone Under this game’s total of 54.5, a trend tracing back to late September in 2018, Fisher’s first year in College Station. Find more NCAA betting trends for Appalachian State vs. Texas A&M.

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