Whether you’re betting the March Madness odds or building your NCAA Tournament bracket, sleepers and Cinderellas are key to cashing in during the Big Dance.
Our Covers crew sized up each side of the bracket and picked out a possible live underdog and a potential Cinderella to follow in the tournament. **video
WHO’S A LIVE UNDERDOG IN THE EAST REGION?
UCF KNIGHTS: Central Florida has a very competitive No. 9-versus-No. 8 matchup with VCU in the Round of 64, but this Knights team is a tough matchup and checks off a lot of KenPom’s “Four Factors”, including ranking No. 58 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 36 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Central Florida plays a methodical pace, defends well, and has a game-changer in 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall. FanDuel Sportsbooks have UCF as a +5,550 long shot to win the East, due to being tracked for a second-round meeting with Duke.
WHO’S A POTENTIAL CINDERELLA IN THE EAST REGION?
LIBERTY FLAMES: After Loyola-Chicago’s run to the Final Four last year, everyone is on the lookout for similarly-sculpted “Cinderellas”. Liberty fits the mold, with an efficient offense, solid 3-point shooting, and a defense that protects the rim and allows only 60.8 points per game.
The Flames, who moved from +8 to +7 for an opening-round matchup with Mississippi State, suck all the energy out of the gym with one of the slowest tempos in the country (66.5 poss per game). Liberty is a +10,000 long shot to win the East Regional with a possible run in with Duke in the Sweet 16.
WHO’S A LIVE UNDERDOG IN THE SOUTH REGION
WISCONSIN BADGERS: If anyone has the ability to beat UVA at their own game in this region it's No. 5 seed Wisconsin. Like Virginia, Wisconsin also has an excellent defense. They actually have the third-best defense in the country according to the KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rating, two spots ahead of Virginia. The Badgers also have one of the best big men in college in Ethan Happ, who can do pretty much everything (except hit free throws) with 17.5 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 4.5 apg.
The Badgers and Cavaliers played against each other back in November and while UVA pulled out a relatively comfortable victory thanks to a big first half, Wisconsin almost crawled back into the game by locking down on defense late. The final score in that matchup was 53-46 for Virginia. With both teams playing at a slow pace and having excellent defenses, Wisconsin should be able to keep things close and as long as they're within striking distance they could pull out ahead, just like FSU.
WHO’S A POTENTIAL CINDERELLA IN THE SOUTH REGION?
UC IRVINE ANTEATERS: You might be seeing a pattern start to form but as the saying goes: "defense wins championships." The Anteaters are yet another team in this conference which prides itself on D, holding opponents to just 40.7 percent shooting from 2-point range, the best number in the nation. They're also 10th in the country in rebounding rate, snagging 54.7 percent of all available boards.
In the first round they have a matchup with Kansas State who also have a tough defense and play at a slow pace. KSU could also be missing one of their best players (and most efficient scorer) in Dean Wade who missed the Big 12 Tournament with a foot injury and might not be ready to go for Friday's game. The Anteaters also won't have to travel too far for this game in San Jose (less than 400 miles) while KSU will have to travel almost 1800 miles.
UC Irvin could be prime for an upset, and if they pulled that off they would play the winner of Wisconsin-Oregon which means yet another defensive battle of attrition which would give them a chance to sneak all the way into the Sweet Sixteen.
WHO’S A LIVE UNDERDOG IN THE WEST REGION?
BUFFALO BULLS: The West is possibly the most intriguing region when it comes to live underdogs. No. 3 Texas Tech has the fourth-best scoring defense in the nation had won nine in a row before losing to West Virginia in the Big 12 semifinals. No. 4 Florida State is possibly the deepest squad in the nation and showed it can compete with the top seeds when it knocked off Virginia in the ACC semifinals.
But for a true live underdog, we’re looking to No. 6 Buffalo. The MAC champs have won 12 straight and feature the fifth-highest scoring offense in the nation at 84.9 points. The Bulls have a roster full of seniors who know how to take down good teams after knocking off No. 4 Arizona in the first round of the tournament last season.
WHO’S A POTENTIAL CINDERELLA IN THE WEST REGION?
MURRAY STATE RACERS: Murray State. The Racers have been given the 12 seed, which is generally given to mid-major teams that have a legitimate chance to advance. Murray State enters the tournament winners of 11 straight, taking the Ohio Valley Conference title along the way. But most importantly, the Racers have Ja Morant, arguably the second-most exciting player in the entire tournament after Zion Williamson.
Morant (24.6 points per game, 10 assists per game) is doing things rarely seen in college basketball as he is the only player in Division I to average at least 20 points and eight assists. In his last two games during the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, the sophomore guard played all 40 minutes in each and put up 29 points and eight assists in the semis and then 36 points, seven rebounds, and three assists in the finals.
WHO’S A LIVE UNDERDOG IN THE MIDWEST REGION?
AUBURN TIGERS/IOWA STATE CYCLONES: There is no shortage of live dogs in the Midwest. But the value bets are No. 5 Auburn and No. 6 Iowa State at 8/1. Both are coming off conference tournament championship runs and are more than capable of extending those runs in the big dance.
Auburn is one of the best 3-point shooting teams around and led the nation in steals, while Iowa State had some puzzling losses this year, but is playing its best basketball of the season right now. They are deep and are terrific shooters, while the defense is coming around. It wouldn’t be that surprising to see either of these teams in Minneapolis.
WHO’S A POTENTIAL CINDERELLA IN THE MIDWEST REGION?
WOFFORD TERRIERS: If you’re looking for the team with the real “it” factor, look no further than the Wofford Terriers. You might think a Southern Conference champion on the seven line is ranked too high, but they may actually be under-seeded.
The Terriers and enter the tournament winners of 20 consecutive games rank in the top 20 in the KenPom rankings. They also shoot 3’s. A lot of ‘em. And they rank second in the nation hitting 41.6 percent of them. Fletcher Magee is awesome. This is the type of team the casual tourney can really get behind and they are 18/1 to win the Midwest.
