The St. John's Red Storm welcome the Villanova Wildcats to Madison Square Garden in Big East action on Wednesday. These two squads are neck-and-neck in the conference standings and need to play with more consistency if they want to be part of March Madness.
The Red Storm upset the Wildcats on the road earlier this month, and St. John's is expected to win again with college basketball odds installing it as a 3.5-point home favorite.
Here are my free college basketball picks for Villanova vs. St. John's on January 24.
Villanova vs St. John's best odds
Villanova vs St. John's picks and predictions
The Villanova Wildcats have dropped three of their last four games, although they shouldn't feel too bad about losing by a single point to No. 1 UConn on the weekend. The St. John's Red Storm also come into this contest on a three-game losing streak, but that includes a pair of single-point defeats against ranked Marquette and Creighton squads.
When these teams previously clashed on January 6, the Red Storm won 81-71 to easily cover as 3.5-point road underdogs. St. John's had a 36-28 rebounding edge in that contest, but the big difference was the Wildcats going just 6-for-28 from beyond the arc.
On the season, the Wildcats shoot a modest 33.5% from 3-point range but take a staggering 48.3% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc. Taking such a high volume of 3-point attempts creates a lot of volatility for this 'Nova offense — especially since they don't do a good job of knocking them down.
That could prove problematic again since St. John's does a good job of defending the perimeter (opponent 3-point percentage of 32.3%) and the Wildcats are on the road in a large arena which has different sight lines than the typical college venue.
The Red Storm have been solid on defense under Rick Pitino, ranking 51st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite missing wing stopper R.J. Luis for 10 games near the start of the season. While they have vulnerabilities on that side of the ball, this 'Nova team isn't built to exploit them.
St. John's is 298th in efficiency against shots attacking the rim and 319th at defending in transition per ShotQualityBets, but Villanova attacks the rim at one of the lowest frequencies in the country and is 247th in transition frequency. When you also consider the Wildcats are just 316th in the country in adjusted tempo, it seems like a good idea to fade them on their team total.
My best bet: Villanova Team Total Under 71.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Villanova vs St. John's same-game parlay
Villanova team total Under 70.5
Daniss Jenkins Over 13.5 points
Justin Moore Under 3.5 rebounds
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Although DraftKings has the team total for Villanova a point lower than FanDuel, you're able to build a same-game parlay with it.
Guard Daniss Jenkins has emerged as one of the Red Storm's biggest contributors after following Pitino from Iona to St. John's. Jenkins has dropped 16+ points in six of his last seven games, which includes that previous clash with Villanova where he scored 18 on a season-high 17 field goal attempts.
Villanova guard Justin Moore hasn't made much of an impact in the rebounding department, snagging fewer than five boards in nine of 14 games. He won't see many rebounding opportunities tonight with St. John's center Joel Soriano (9.7 rpg) and forward Chris Ledlum (7.9 rpg) controlling the glass.
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Villanova vs St. John's spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Red Storm installed as 3.5-point home favorites, and while the spread briefly went up to -4.5, buyback on the Wildcats has moved it back to -3.5 as of noon E.T. The total opened at 145.5 and has been bet down to 143.5.
Villanova is fresh off a 66-65 loss at home to No. 1 UConn. Before that it lost 87-74 to Marquette on the road and beat DePaul by 25 points, although the Blue Demons are arguably the worst Power 6 team in the country.
Since beating 'Nova earlier this month, the Red Storm have played a slew of close contests with defeats against Marquette and Creighton coming by a single point, and a victory vs. Providence coming by just two points. The most lopsided game during that span was a 80-65 road loss to Seton Hall which ironically had the smallest spread at -1.
Villanova vs St. John's betting trend to know
The Under is 12-7 in Villanova's last 19 road games going back to the start of last season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. St. John's.
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Villanova vs St. John's game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Villanova vs St. John's key injuries
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