UCLA vs Oregon Picks and Predictions: Ducks Go Toe-to-Toe With Bruins

After a shaky start to February, the UCLA Bruins are rounding into form with the Pac-12 postseason pending. The Bruins have won three in a row but captured all of those victories on their home court. They head to Matthew Knight Arena to face the Oregon Ducks on Thursday.

The NCAA basketball betting odds have UCLA giving three points to host Oregon, which is mired in a late-season funk. The Ducks have dropped three of their last four games but did upset the Bruins 84-81 in overtime inside Pauley Pavilion back in January.

Here are our college basketball free picks and predictions for UCLA at Oregon on February 24.

UCLA vs Oregon odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Oregon opened as a 3-point home underdog and after quick drops to +2.5 overnight, this spread is starting to trend toward UCLA with some operators as high as Bruins -3.5.

The total hit the board at 138 points and slimmed to 137.5 at some shops before climbing as high as 139 this morning. However, spots like BetMGM are dealing the total at 137.5 points.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

UCLA vs Oregon predictions

• Prediction: Oregon +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 137.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Oregon +3.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/24/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

UCLA vs Oregon game info

• Location: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR
• Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

UCLA at Oregon betting preview

Injuries

UCLA: Tyger Campbell G (Questionable), Peyton Watson G (Questionable).
Oregon: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The UCLA Bruins are 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 games as road favorites. Find more NCAA betting trends for UCLA vs. Oregon.

UCLA vs Oregon picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

This Pac-12 rivalry isn’t what it used to be in recent seasons with the Ducks suffering a down year in 2021-22. Oregon still has the capacity to punch with the conference elite, nearly knocking off Arizona on the road this past week and touting that victory over UCLA last month.

Thursday is a tight turnaround for the Bruins and will be the team’s third game in six days and fourth in eight days (they also have to play at Oregon State on Saturday). UCLA was lucky enough to play those three prior contests at home because the road hasn’t been kind to Mick Cronin’s program when hitting the highway.

The Bruins went 1-3 SU and ATS during a four-game road run to start the month and limp into this tough schedule spot with ailments to key contributors in the backcourt.

Guards Tyger Campbell and Peyton Watson are game-time decisions while standout Johnny Juzang continues to battle through a sore hip which has plagued his production in recent outings. 

UCLA sees its scoring drop significantly away from Los Angeles, suffering a near 13-point decline in scoring average in the role of visitor. The Bruins, who rank among the top teams in adjusted offensive efficiency, watch its effective field goal rate nosedive from 54.7% at home to 45.1% on the road.

Oregon is far from a lockdown defense but holds its own at home, limiting foes to 65 points per game in Eugene compared to a swollen defensive scoring average of 73.8 when the Ducks hit the highway.

Head coach Dana Altman knows these home games with UCLA and USC on Saturday could be his team’s ticket to the NCAA tournament, with Oregon currently projected as a big bubble team come Selection Sunday.

Prediction: Oregon +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

While Campbell’s potential absence and Juzang fighting through a sore hip helps the Oregon defense, the Ducks not only have to make UCLA miss shots but keep the Bruins from rounding up the rebounds. The Ducks have been pushed around on the boards, which is at the top of Altman’s key factors for this home stretch. 

UCLA is one of the better rebounding teams in the land – rebound rate of 52.8% - and wrangles an average of more than 10 offensive boards on the season. In the January matchup with Oregon, the Bruins grabbed 13 rebounds on the offensive glass and outworked the Ducks 43-38 in rebounding.

Oregon can score at home, which is why it sits 11-4 SU inside Matthew Knight Arena. The Ducks are putting up more than 76 points per homestand on the year and fire a respectable 55.4% effective field goal rate as a host. 

The Ducks are coming off a strong offensive effort at Arizona on Saturday, shooting 46% from the field while also making the most of their trips to the foul line. Oregon is one of the better Over bets in the Pac-12 at 16-11 O/U on the season and has topped the total in 15 of their last 21 games overall.

Prediction: Over 137.5 (-110)

Best bet

Outside of a strong run in the Pac-12 tournament, Oregon’s opportunities to wow the selection committee are waning. Beyond UCLA, the Ducks face Southern Cal at home and have a road trip to the two Washington schools to round out the regular season. 

Oregon has played to its level of competition this season - which is good and bad. Inside of conference play, it's 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS versus the top half of the league (Arizona, UCLA, USC and Colorado) and 3-0 ATS when pegged as a Pac-12 underdog this season. 

In fact, Dana Altman’s program makes the most of those extra points in conference competition, going 47-30 ATS as an underdog in Pac-12 play since he took over in 2010-11 (61%), including a 9-4 ATS count as a conference dog in Eugene.

Pick: Oregon +3.5 (-110)

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