The primetime game of the quarterfinal round of the 2023 SEC Tournament will see the Arkansas Razorbacks face off against the Texas A&M Aggies on Friday night.
Arkansas held on late to defeat Auburn on Thursday night, 76-73. The Razorbacks were up by as much as 15 points in the second half. Texas A&M finished the regular season at 23-8 overall and 15-3 in SEC play. The Aggies also won 17 of their final 20 games to end the regular season.
Will Arkansas be able to pull off the upset and get back to the SEC Tournament semifinals? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for the Arkansas vs. Texas A&M on March 10.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas best odds
Texas A&M vs Arkansas picks and predictions
Arkansas dominated the glass on Thursday night, out-rebounding Auburn by a total of 37-19 and winning on the offensive boards. However, the Razorbacks almost blew the lead late because of turning the ball over 19 times to only 10 turnovers for Auburn.
Texas A&M is one of the better rebounding teams in the country, recording 36.8 boards per game (74th) and allowing 32.0 boards per contest (66th). The Aggies are also excellent at forcing turnovers, as they rank 62nd in the country by forcing 14.2 turnovers per game.
These two programs split the season series with both teams winning at home. The Aggies won both the turnover and rebounding battle in both games, but the game in Arkansas saw a huge discrepancy in field goal percentage. Arkansas shot 50.0% from the field with 19 made free throws, while Texas A&M converted at just a 34.2% clip.
There is an excellent chance that Texas A&M will win the rebounding and turnover battle in this game. However, Arkansas will likely have the edge when it comes to shooting. This one could very well come down to free throws and foul trouble.
This is where I like Arkansas. The Razorbacks shot 56.0% from the field last night and got 23 free throw attempts, drawing 18 personal fouls. Depth will be key in this game and that heavily favors Arkansas, as the roster has seven players that average at least 19 minutes, compared to just five for the Aggies.
Give me the Razorbacks to win and advance to the semis.
My best bet: Arkansas moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
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Texas A&M vs Arkansas spread analysis
Texas A&M went 1-3 in neutral site games this season, with a lone win over Loyola Chicago. The Aggies also went 7-4 in true road games this season. However, their only two road or neutral site wins over a team that is NCAA tournament-worthy came against Auburn and Missouri.
Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have been fantastic in neutral site games, going 4-1 after their win last night. Their lone loss came to Creighton by three points when they were ranked No. 10 in the nation. Arkansas has made the semifinals of the SEC Tournament every year under Eric Musselman.
The Razorbacks are 4-0 against the spread in their last four neutral site games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. Meanwhile, the Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The underdog is also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two programs.
Last year, the Aggies beat the Razorbacks in a semifinal game by two points. This year, Musselman and Arkansas will use the combination of their physicality and shooting to get revenge and head to another SEC semifinal.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas Over/Under analysis
When Arkansas won its matchup with Texas A&M, there were 151 total points scored. However, when the Aggies won, there were only a total of 118 points put up. This one is likely to meet somewhere in the middle, but I would lean closer to a higher-scoring affair considering I'm picking Arkansas to win.
The Over is 4-0 in the Razorbacks' last four games following a win and 6-1 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. The Over is 8-1 in the Aggies' last nine games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last five neutral site games.
I was expecting last night's game featuring the Razorbacks to be low-scoring, yet Arkansas still was able to put up 76. I'm banking on a repeat performance tonight.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Razorbacks' last six overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Arkansas.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas game info
| Conference: | SEC Quarterfinals |
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Friday, March 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
