SMU vs Memphis Odds, Picks and Predictions: Mustangs Struggle to Score

The Memphis Tigers are starting to get hot, and they'll look to continue that when they welcome the SMU Mustangs to town on Thursday night. 

For as much fanfare that surrounded last year's Memphis team, this iteration may be just as good. It has a different talent level but makes up for that with a high degree of cohesiveness and a defense that's on par with last year.

You could make the argument that SMU has played better recently. Its average scoring margin over the last three games has been -0.3, which is relatively better than the -3.9 for the season. Ultimately though, it hasn't meant much: it's lost two of those three games and will be entering tonight off a loss to Wichita State.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Southern Methodist vs. Memphis.

SMU vs Memphis best odds

SMU vs Memphis picks and predictions

This is one of the games where the spread feels about right when you look at the metrics. However, when you look at some outliner circumstances, you're drawn to one conclusion: a bet on Memphis. So I'll be rolling with the Tigers this evening.

That scoring margin I mentioned? The one that paints SMU as a reasonably competitive team in most of its games? It has a drastic drop when hitting the road. It falls to a -10.2, meaning it averages a double-digit loss each time it hits the road.

Its offense also takes a solid dip when it hits the road too. Tonight it will get a well-rested team at home. To add to its 1-4 against the spread record on the street, the Mustangs are just 2-6 ATS on the season when having a rest disadvantage.

I'm expecting the Memphis defense to really stifle SMU. There's no clear-cut advantage for the Mustangs, and when they've had issues scoring this season, they've tended to let things snowball quickly. Let me explain what I mean.

SMU has one of the worst eFG percentages in basketball: at 47.1%, it ranks 310th. Memphis' best attribute is its team defense and forcing the tough shot. That's why it ranks 27th in the country in eFG percentage defense.

SMU gets nearly 40% of its offense from two places: spot-up sets and in transition. The Tigers thrive in both of these areas. Their transition defense is the second-best in the American conference allowing just .914 points per possession, and their spot-up defense isn't far behind — allowing just .885 points per possession. 

As is often the case, I have no clue how the Mustangs score enough to stay in contact here. They have yet to show much promise against good defenses on their schedule — look at their game against Houston for example — and this is one of those.

On the other end, Kendric Davis presents some serious matchup problems for them, as SMU has only had one guard on its roster that's proved an ability to consistently stay in front of the opponent. 

My best bet: Memphis -12.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

SMU vs Memphis spread analysis

I'm on the Tigers tonight. Take away their prowess on the defensive end, and I'd still be a fan of the pick. 

Memphis draws fouls at the highest rate in the American Conference, and it should be able to do that here against the Mustangs. However, as mentioned, only some players on the roster can stay in front of the opposing guard. That causes them to be out of position more and foul a reasonable amount. That's an issue for a team that has little depth. 

SMU vs Memphis Over/Under analysis

I'll place a unit on the Under of 150.5 at -110 at BetFred. I see value in this down to 148. My projections see this total coming in at around 143.5, and my handicap sees even more of an edge. Again, I see little to no path SMU can score on Memphis with any regularity.

The total here is based on the game's tempo: we visit around 75 possessions. However, not enough attention is paid to how bad the Mustangs' offense could be tonight. 

The trends only do a little to help us point in a direction. The Under is 4-0 in SMU's last four games against a team with a winning record, however, the Over has hit in four straight games for Memphis after an ATS win. Something has to give. 

SMU vs Memphis betting trend to know

The Favorite is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these teams. Find more College basketball betting trends for SMU vs. Memphis.

SMU vs Memphis game info

SMU vs Memphis key injuries

Pages related to this topic