The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Ohio State Buckeyes in NCAA basketball action on Thursday night.
The Hawkeyes have been up and down this season but look poised to make their fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have stumbled to the second-worst record in the Big Ten but did clobber the Hawkeyes in Columbus last month.
The Hawkeyes are expected to get revenge at home tonight with college basketball betting odds installing them as 7.5-point favorites for the rematch. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Iowa on February 16.
Ohio State vs Iowa best odds
Ohio State vs Iowa picks and predictions
The Ohio State Buckeyes beat the Iowa Hawkeyes by 16 points back on January 21, but these sides have some of the biggest home-away splits to boot.
The Buckeyes benefit big time from playing in front of a raucous crowd in Columbus but they are just 1-7 straight up in hostile venues with their last three defeats on the road coming by at least eight points. Meanwhile, Iowa is 12-2 SU with an impressive average scoring margin of plus-15.4 points per game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
You can really see the discrepancy in how these teams shoot the ball. The Hawkeyes have a sizzling 56.5 effective field goal percentage at home compared to a 45.5 EFG% on the road while the Buckeyes have a 48 EFG% in true road games — significantly worse than their 53.9 EFG% in Columbus.
Combine that with the Buckeyes' going just 1-11 SU and against the spread in their last 12 games, and I'll fade them on the spread.
My best bet: Iowa -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Ohio State vs Iowa spread analysis
When the new year began, Ohio State had cracked the AP Top 25 and another strong season seemed on the horizon for Chris Holtmann's crew. Then things fell apart.
The Buckeyes have just one win in their last 12 games, and while that ugly stretch began with some close defeats, they've been getting smashed in recent weeks. In their last contest, the Spartans embarrassed them 62-41 in front of their home fans at the Schottenstein Center.
That said, Ohio State's only victory over that span came against the Hawkeyes, beating them 93-77. The Buckeyes shot 56% from the floor in that contest while boasting a plus-8 rebounding margin and forcing 14 turnovers from an Iowa side that rarely coughs the ball up.
The Hawkeyes are eighth in the country in turnover rate and rank fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Thanks to that finely-tuned scoring unit, the Hawkeyes have gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games.
However, they've struggled on the other end of the floor and rank just 145th in adjusted defensive efficiency while sitting outside the Top 300 in opponent field goal percentage (46.2%).
Ohio State vs Iowa Over/Under analysis
We're seeing a high total of 152.5 for this contest, despite the Buckeyes' recent offensive struggles and the fact that they play at a below-average pace. Since dropping 93 points against Iowa, Ohio State is averaging just 60.5 ppg on 40.6 FG% over the last six games.
Freshman forward Brice Sensabaugh leads the team with 16.4 points per game but hasn't scored more than 14 in his last four contests. Sensabaugh is also shooting just 30.2% from the floor during that span.
That said, the Hawkeyes are the worst-rated defensive team in the conference so Ohio State's offense should be able to bounce back from a horrific performance against Michigan State.
Like the Hawkeyes, the Buckeyes are also significantly more efficient on offense than on the other end of the floor. They rank 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency but are a modest 95th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Ohio State will have a tough time slowing down an up-tempo Hawkeyes squad that put up 80.6 ppg and have four players averaging double digits in points. Kris Murray is second in the conference in scoring with 21.0 ppg on 50.3 FG%, and the Buckeyes could have a tough time matching up with him.
Ohio State vs Iowa betting trend to know
The Hawkeyes are 45-21-3 ATS in their last 69 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Iowa.
Ohio State vs Iowa game info
| Location: | Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA |
| Date: | Thursday, February 16, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
