North Carolina and Pittsburgh meet up for an afternoon ACC battle on Friday.
The Panthers come into this matchup hot, having won three straight, including a two-point win in its previous game against Syracuse.
North Carolina is looking to get back to the National Championship game but has started the season slowly and saw some big-time shooting regression this season. The Tar Heels have played well lately, though. Like their opponent, they, too, are on a winning streak, winning four straight with back-to-back victories over Big Ten opponents.
What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh.
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh best odds
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions
I started this season to fade North Carolina often. Anyone who paid attention to March Madness last season knew the recipe behind its tournament run. That included insane shot-making and Caleb Love routinely taking over games. That's rarely sustainable in college basketball. That fade has been kind to me as the Tar Heels are 4-8 ATS and could easily be 2-10 ATS depending on the number you got. I will fade North Carolina again today as this spot sets up nicely for an improving Pittsburgh team.
My projections have Pittsburgh winning this game by three points when giving them just a point for a modest home-court advantage (given the time of day the game is being played). I'm not especially bullish about the win, but I feel great about the cover.
One of the keys to beating North Carolina is holding your own on the offensive backboard. It's always been that way, and it feels like it always will be. It's especially true when Armando Bacot is on the floor.
However, the Panthers are going to create plenty of second-chance points. They have the 30th-highest offensive rebounding percentage in college basketball, and, shockingly, defensive rebounding has yet to be something North Carolina has done exceptionally great this season. The Tar Heels have been average in that department, but you typically expect more out of UNC. An average performance here won't stop a team like Pittsburgh from creating second-chance points.
The second thing you have to do is hold your own in transition. For Pittsburgh, its transition offense sets in the top quadrant of college basketball transition, averaging 1.09 points per possession. That's only a tick behind what North Carolina has done, so the question becomes, can Pittsburgh outscore UNC in transition? Likely not. The Tar Heels have built several years of culture on scoring in transition. However, can Pittsburgh come close for a game? I believe so, and that's all it will need to do to cover here.
Take the Panthers in this spot. It's hard to know what we'll get as far as a road atmosphere, but it's still an early-season road conference game. That's a favorable spot to back an underdog. And you're getting 6.5 points, and it's a team I'm projecting to win the game outright. I can't pass that up.
My best bet: Pittsburgh +6.5 (-108 at Pinnacle)
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North Carolina vs Pittsburgh spread analysis
I like Pittsburgh here. To begin the season, I was low on the Panthers, but I've come off some of my preseason priors rather quickly. Jeff Capel is getting the most out of his team for the first time in his tenure. That's backed up by their impressive talent vs. winning percentage metric at Barttorvik.com.
They cover but do they win outright? They have a good shot but feel much better taking the points. North Carolina and its current core have an innate ability to win close games. We saw it a ton last season, and we're already seeing it this year with a comeback win against Ohio State, and clutch plays against Michigan.
Unlike North Carolina, Pittsburgh has been an ATS wagon. The Panthers have covered in eight straight games, seven straight after a win, and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against a team with a winning record.
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Over/Under analysis
This total of 149.5 is spot-on, and I won't touch it. Both teams will want to play in transition and can do an excellent job of creating second-chance points. With that, you have to lean toward the Over. But North Carolina's jump-shooting is conducive to such high variance that I'm uncomfortable playing a side. Along with that, I'm projecting this game to go Under. This all adds up to me staying away.
The Over is trendy for North Carolina. Its games have gone Over in four of their last five games overall and at the same rate when they are coming off a win.
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
North Carolina has covered just once in its last six games against a team with a winning percentage of .600 or higher. Find more College basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh.
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh game info
| Location: | Peterson Events Center, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Friday, December 30, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh key injuries
North Carolina: Will Shaver F (Out), D'Marco Dunn G (Out).
Pittsburgh: John Hugley IV F (Out), William Jeffress F (Out), Vason Stevenson F (Out), Dior Johnson G (Out).
