The Boston College Eagles take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC Tournament on Wednesday night.
The Eagles cruised to an easy victory against the No. 15 seed Louisville Cardinals yesterday, but things won't be as easy against the No. 7 seed Tar Heels. Especially with this tourney taking place at Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina and likely to have a home-court feel for UNC.
College basketball odds opened with the Tar Heels as 10.5-point favorites before ticking up to -11.5. Here are my best free Boston College vs. North Carolina college basketball picks and predictions for March 8.
North Carolina vs Boston College best odds
North Carolina vs Boston College picks and predictions
The Tar Heels have been a disappointment this season, but one player that has lived up to lofty expectations has been big man Armando Bacot. Bacot was named to the All-ACC first team on Monday and has averaged 16.5 points and 10.8 rebounds per game while shooting 55.2% from the floor.
The O/U on Bacot's points total today is set at a reasonable 15.5. He has eclipsed that number in 13 of his last 20 games and one of those times where he scored fewer than 16 points was a contest where he was injured in the first minute.
The 6-foot-11 Bacot does most of his offensive work off putbacks and close to the rim. That makes a Boston College team that struggles on the glass and doesn't defend well in the post, an ideal matchup for him. Especially if 7-foot forward Quinten Post is unable to suit up for BC.
When these teams faced off earlier this season, Bacot dropped 20 points and grabbed 16 boards and he should be in line for another strong performance tonight.
My best bet: Armando Bacot Over 15.5 points (-125 at bet365)
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North Carolina vs Boston College spread analysis
Oddsmakers are likely expecting the crowd in Greensboro to be heavily slanted toward UNC with this line set in the double digits. Although the questionable status of Post and the Eagles playing on a back-to-back also plays a part.
When these teams faced off previously this season in January, the Tar Heels won 72-64 but failed to cover the spread as 14-point home chalk.
They wrapped up their regular season with a 62-57 loss at home to archrival Duke, snapping a three-game winning streak for UNC who finished with a disappointing 11-9 record in conference play after entering the season as national title favorites.
Although the Tar Heels have dominated on the glass (23rd in the country in rebound rate) and have taken care of the ball (25th in turnover rate), they've struggled in other key areas. They rank just 333rd in the country in 3-point percentage (31%) and have been inconsistent on defense where they allow 71.3 ppg.
The Eagles had an easy task last night when they got to play against a Louisville team that had just two wins against Power Six opponents all year and was 315th in the NET rankings. The Cardinals actually had a 3-point lead at the half, but the Eagles ran away with it in the second frame to win by a final score of 80-62.
Boston College had four players score in double digits in that contest, which was necessary to make up for the absence of Post who was named ACC Most Improved Player after averaging 15.2 ppg on 54/44/85 shooting splits. BC's offense struggled earlier in the season when Post missed the first 16 games with a foot injury and he'll be a game-time decision tonight.
The Eagles have been a middling team on both ends of the floor and finished the regular season with a 9-11 record in conference play and an average scoring margin of -4.6 ppg.
North Carolina vs Boston College Over/Under analysis
Even with Post, this isn't exactly a high-scoring Boston College team. It ranks 206th in the country in adjusted tempo while averaging just 67.5 ppg against conference foes.
The Tar Heels play at a faster pace and put up 72.9 ppg in ACC play, but they can be a bit hot-and-cold on offense as well.
They've been held below 70 points in three of their last five games and leading scorer Caleb Love has been far from efficient, shooting just 38.1% from the field and 30.1% from beyond the arc.
UNC has also been playing tighter defense lately, holding opponents to just 62.5 ppg on 39.8 FG% over its last four games. That renewed focus on defense has resulted in the Under going 5-1 in North Carolina's previous six contests.
North Carolina vs Boston College betting trend to know
The Tar Heels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Boston College.
North Carolina vs Boston College game info
| Conference: | ACC Round 2 |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
