Michigan and Ohio State square off in Columbus today in a basketball rivalry that’s been far less one-sided than on the gridiron after the teams split the series last season with one win apiece.
Between the Wolverines’ struggles ATS and the Buckeyes’ ability to step up in their most important games, I’m expecting Jake Diebler’s team to rise to the occasion at home in my Michigan vs. Ohio State predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, February 16.
Michigan vs Ohio State prediction
My best bet
Ohio State -2.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Unlike in football, the Ohio State Buckeyes have proven capable of beating the Michigan Wolverines on the hardwood. The Buckeyes blew out the Wolverines 84-61 the last time they met last season and the Buckeyes lead the series 9-7 dating back to 2015.
Although Michigan is having the more successful season this year and has a real shot of winning the Big Ten regular season title in Dusty May’s first year as head coach, the Wolverines have been atrocious ATS.
Michigan has failed to cover in eight straight games, which includes matchups with lowly Big Ten programs like Indiana, Penn State, Minnesota, and Rutgers. So despite being projected to earn a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, per Bracket Matrix, the Wolverines have simply been too inconsistent in Big Ten play to trust.
They sit just seventh in ppg in conference games (78.0) and are 10th in both 2-pointers allowed per game (19.6) and 3-pointers allowed (7.5). Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are fighting to stay alive in the race to reach March Madness, as they’re currently projected for a nine-seed.
They’re just 15-10 on the season, but a large reason why is they’ve played a tougher schedule than Michigan. The Buckeyes’ schedule is the 11th-toughest, per KenPom, and they’ve proven capable of showing up in big-time matchups.
The Buckeyes are 6-3 ATS in their last nine, and that includes covering against ranked programs like Purdue and Maryland. They’ve also got a scorer capable of taking over games in Bruce Thornton, who ranks sixth in the conference in OBPR, per EvanMiya.
Thanks to Thornton, Ohio State is 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and can get after a Michigan defense that’s allowed 74.8 ppg to Big Ten teams this season. Offensively, Michigan lacks the guard play to keep up with Thornton and freshman John Mobley. Those two have averaged a combined 36.6 ppg in their last five.
The Michigan frontcourt pair of Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf is the best in the conference, but Ohio State sits 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has arguably the best perimeter defense in the conference.
Diebler is poised to do what Ryan Day seems incapable of, and that's beating Michigan.
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Michigan vs Ohio State same-game parlay (SGP)
Ohio State -2.5
Bruce Thornton Over 17.5 points
Danny Wolf Over 9.5 rebounds
Thornton is one of the best players the Buckeyes have had in recent memory with the junior guard taking another leap forward this season. He’s eighth in the conference in ppg (17.3) and on several occasions he’s completely taken over games with 25-plus in four different outings.
Michigan’s defense should struggle with his shooting from behind the arc. The Wolverines are 10th in the conference in 3-pointers allowed (7.5). Thornton has already gone Over 17.5 points in 12 of 25 games and should do so again.
But one place the Wolverines can beat the Buckeyes up is on the glass with Wolf. The Yale transfer leads the conference in rebounds per game (10.0) and has gone for double-digit boards in 13 of 24 games.
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Michigan vs Ohio State odds
Michigan vs Ohio State live odds
Michigan vs Ohio State opening odds
- Spread: Michigan +2.5 | Ohio State -2.5
- Moneyline: Michigan +120 | Ohio State -140
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Ohio State have covered the spread in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Ohio State.
How to watch Michigan vs Ohio State
| Location | Value City Arena, Columbus, OH |
| Date | Sunday, 2-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Michigan vs Ohio State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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