The Marquette Golden Eagles visit the Villanova Wildcats on Wednesday for a rescheduled meeting that was originally slated to take place on January 8. But you know… COVID.
The Wildcats are installed as big 11-point college basketball betting favorites at home, coming off a comeback win against Georgetown on Sunday. Villanova has won 10 of its last 11 games (7-4 ATS), including an 85-68 victory over Marquette on December 23. The Golden Eagles have just one W in their last five, posting a 1-4 ATS count.
Check out our NCAA basketball free picks and predictions for Marquette vs. Villanova on February 10.
Marquette Golden Eagles at Villanova Wildcats Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Marquette: Oso Ighodaro F (Questionable)
Villanova: None
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 17-8-1 in Golden Eagles’ last 26 games as road underdogs. Find more NCAA betting trends for Marquette vs. Villanova.
NCAAB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonVillanova crept from -10.5 to -11 this morning at FanDuel, and the line remains -11 as of 4:30 p.m. ET. The game is drawing two-way action on the point spread, with 53 percent of bets and 51 percent of money on the favored Wildcats. The total moved from 138.5 to 140.5, then back to the 138.5 opener, even though the Over is landing practically all the tickets and money, at 93 percent and 96 percent, respectively.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Wildcats avoided a two-game skid with a big finish in their win over the Hoyas on the weekend, closing out the game with a 18-7 run in the final five minutes to win 84-74 but failing to cover as 13.5-point chalk.
Villanova has struggled to met oddsmakers' expectations in recent games, covering in only three of its last seven contests and facing double-digit spreads in three of those outings, while being tagged as a 9-point fave at St. John’s on February 3 – losing outright 70-59 to the Red Storm.
While the Wildcats continue to build buckets, putting up almost 78 points per game, the defense has slipped, giving up 70 or more points in four of their five games since the calendar flipped to 2021. Villanova allowed Georgetown to shoot 51 percent from the field and trailed the Hoyas late into Sunday’s contest.
Marquette is mired in inconsistency but is coming off a strong effort in a loss to Creighton last Saturday. The Golden Eagles fell 71-68 but covered as 5-point home underdogs, doing a respectable job defending the Bluejays’ 42nd-ranked offense. Creighton was held to just 6-of-17 shooting from beyond the arc – something MU can build on heading into this matchup with Villanova’s sharp perimeter shooting.
Villanova hasn’t looked great in the past two games and could get caught looking past Marquette Wednesday night and ahead to a Big East battle between the two top teams in the conference at Creighton on Saturday. We’re fading the favorite in this situational spot.
PREDICTION: Marquette +11 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Golden Eagles know they can’t cough up the ball like they did in the last matchup with the Wildcats, committing 16 turnovers and watching Jay Wright’s program convert those mistakes into easy buckets. Those turnovers ruined a really good offensive effort from Marquette, which lost by 15 points despite shooting 51 percent from the field and 9 of 18 from beyond the arc against Villanova back in December.
Marquette got a boost in scoring depth with the return of freshman forward Justin Lewis on the weekend. Lewis, who sat out two games with an ankle injury, is averaging over eight points per game and had cracked double digits in four of his last six games before getting hurt. He was slowed in his return versus Creighton, playing only eight minutes, but should see more action Wednesday.
Villanova’s offense makes any Over bet viable, ranked fifth in offensive efficiency (119.2) at KenPom.com. The Wildcats have topped the total in six of their last eight games and are 4-1 Over/Under inside William B. Finneran Pavilion this season.
This 138.5-point total is the lowest Over/Under the Wildcats have faced since December 16 (131.5 vs. Butler). On the year, Villanova is 5-2 O/U versus totals of 142 points or lower.
PREDICTION: Over 138.5 (-110)
Marquette vs Villanova Betting Card
- Marquette +11 (-110)
- Over 138.5 (-110)
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