Louisville vs Indiana Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Today's College Basketball Game

This noon tip in the Bahamas could be a very tightly-contested game, so while I'm confidently taking Indiana to topple Louisville, I am not laying the points on the spread.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Nov 27, 2024 • 08:04 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Get set for a noon ET tip when the Louisville Cardinals meet the Indiana Hoosiers in the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis opening round in Nassau, Bahamas.

Both groups have had nice beginnings to their season, but my Louisville vs. Indiana predictions expect the more experienced Hoosiers to have the upper hand.

Read on for my college basketball picks for Wednesday, November 24, and televised on ESPN. 

Louisville vs Indiana prediction

My best bet
Indiana moneyline (-140 at bet365)

My analysis

The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers hit the road for the first time this season. 

Indiana is an old-school basketball team with four returning starters. The Hoosiers don’t shoot many triples, but the ball doesn’t stick, and that ball movement has led to a solid 57% effective field goal percentage.

Old-school basketball teams defend, and so do the Hoosiers. They are long on the perimeter, and opponents drain only 27% from downtown. They are also long on the block, leading to 39.5 rebounds per game.

Only a walk-on remains from a Louisville Cardinals group that hasn’t won double-digit games in two seasons. This aggressive defensive bunch is gaining 19 turnovers, which they’ve turned into 20 points per night.

Louisville relies heavily on the triple. According to KenPom, 37% of their points come from the triple. This is its first road game, and if that triple doesn’t fall, the Cardinals will have difficulties scoring against the lengthier and more experienced Hoosiers.

I didn’t lay the points with Indiana because of the Hoosiers’ turnovers and the Cardinals' triples. Both could come into play today. Louisville relies heavily on both, and it could easily keep this closer than it should be.

Indiana has experience galore, and it is long. The Hoosiers' length makes them challenging defenders, and their exquisite ball movement and likely dominance on both ends of the glass will lead them to victory

Louisville vs Indiana same-game parlay

Indiana moneyline

Under 153.5

Reyne Smith 3+ made threes

I don’t expect Louisville to have much success shooting from downtown, but Reyne Smith could and likely will rain down at least three triples.

Smith has the green light from downtown and drains 42% of his 9.5 attempts per night from downtown. The Hoosiers are tough perimeter defenders, but Smith has plenty of experience and will still get his shots off.

The tempo will probably be there, but this being the first road test for both groups alongside the Cardinals' heavy reliance on the triple leads me to the Under. Both schools are 1-3-0 to the Under, and I expect today’s tilt to follow suit.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!

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Louisville vs Indiana odds

Louisville vs Indiana live odds

Louisville vs Indiana opening odds

  • Spread: Louisville +2.5 (-110) | Indiana -2.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Louisville +114 | Indiana -127
  • Over/Under: Over 153.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365

Louisville vs Indiana betting trend to know

Indiana has hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+10.50 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Indiana.

How to watch Louisville vs Indiana

Location: Imperial Arena, Nassau, Bahamas
Date: Wednesday, 11-27-2024
Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Louisville vs Indiana key injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the tennis betting podcast, This Week in Tennis.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications including SB Nation, FanSided and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. Phil curates the Chip and Charge Tennis Newsletter and pens a weekly tennis column called “10 Things About the ATP Tour," for Passing Shot Productions. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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