The 2026 NIT tips off on Tuesday as the Liberty Flames visit the George Mason Patriots in first-round action.
Both teams like to play deliberately and lean on efficiency over speed, which has me targeting the Under in my Liberty vs. George Mason predictions.
Keep reading to see my free college basketball picks for the NIT on Tuesday, March 17.
Who will win Liberty vs George Mason?
Liberty has floundered down the stretch after a strong regular season, dropping four of its last six games. The Patriots haven’t been hot lately either, but they did beat Saint Louis in their regular-season finale. George Mason has home-court advantage and more big wins this season, and should do enough to advance.
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Liberty vs George Mason prediction
Liberty vs George Mason best bet: Under 144.5 (-110)
The Liberty Flames and George Mason Patriots are two of the slowest teams in the country, both ranking in the Bottom 30 in KenPom’s opponent-adjusted tempo metric. Neither team has the raw stats of a high-scoring offense despite efficient shooting from the field.
George Mason allows only 67.5 points per game, with Liberty nearly as stingy at 70.4 PPG.
Combining two teams that sit on the ball will limit possessions further, as we saw in the Patriots’ 63-57 loss to the St. Bonaventure Bonnies in the Atlantic 10 tournament. The lack of tempo makes the Under the play in this matchup.
COVERS INTEL: Liberty shoots a blistering 51.4% from the field, but still only averaged 78.2 PPG against relatively weak opposition this season.Liberty vs George Mason same-game parlay
George Mason has a clear advantage playing at home in this game. In nine games at home in 2026, the Patriots are 7-2 ATS, continuing a season-long trend that has seen them put up a 17-2 mark straight up at EagleBank Arena. Liberty has lost three of its last four away from home and has only played three Quad 2 or better games all year, so I like the Patriots to overwhelm the Flames early, winning the first half and going on to cover the spread.
Liberty vs George Mason SGP
- Under 144.5
- George Mason -4.5
- George Mason first-half moneyline
Liberty vs George Mason odds
- Spread: Liberty +4.5 (-110) | George Mason -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Liberty +165 | George Mason -200
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 (-110) | Under 144.5 (-110)
Liberty vs George Mason betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in George Mason’s last four games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Liberty vs. George Mason.
How to watch Liberty vs George Mason
| Location | EagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA |
| Date | Tuesday, March 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Liberty vs George Mason key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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