The No. 4-ranked Kentucky Wildcats face off against the No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Battle in Seattle on Saturday night.
These teams played in a thriller last season, and while the Wildcats have a completely revamped roster, my Kentucky vs. Gonzaga predictions expect another close contest. Here are my free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on December 7.
Kentucky vs Gonzaga prediction
My best bet
Kentucky +6.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Gonzaga Bulldogs opened eyes when they opened their season with a 101-63 beatdown of Baylor. However, the Bears were integrating a slew of new players, and ShotQualityBets expected a closer 12-point win based on the shots that each team was getting.
Since then, the Zags have looked impressive but haven't been a juggernaut. They didn't separate from Arizona State until the final minute of their clash in Spokane and lost to West Virginia in overtime in the Bahamas last week. Both the Sun Devils and Mountaineers sit just outside the Top 50 of the KenPom ratings, while the Kentucky Wildcats are at No. 11.
The Wildcats have also gone 7-1 this season, and while their resume isn't quite as impressive, they beat Duke (No. 3 at KenPom) on a neutral court last month. They're coming off a 70-66 road loss to Clemson but ShotQualityBets projected them to score 14 more points based on the open looks they were creating.
This is a highly efficient UK offense that limits turnovers, passes extremely well, and can score at every level. To be fair, you could say the same thing for Gonzaga's prolific attack but the Wildcats have the firepower to go blow for blow with the Bulldogs.
While the neutral court in Seattle favors the Spokane-based Zags, that isn't enough of an edge for me to lay 6.5, especially against an extremely experienced Kentucky side that features seven seniors and one junior in its rotation.
These upperclassmen aren't going to be fazed by the bright lights of the big stage and will keep this game within two possessions.
Kentucky vs Gonzaga same-game parlay
Kentucky +6.5
Otega Oweh Over 3.5 rebounds
Nolan Hickman Over 11.5 points
The total is sitting at a whopping 167 in this game due to these schools boasting highly efficient offenses and preferring a speedy tempo. That should lead to more possessions and a bump in stats for players on both sides.
Otega Oweh leads Kentucky in scoring and has also pulled down 4+ boards in five of his last seven games. In the two games where he went below that number, his minutes were limited in blowout wins, but when the Wildcats faced Clemson and Duke, he logged more than 30 minutes and grabbed seven and six boards, respectively.
Likewise, Gonzaga's Nolan Hickman averages 11.5 ppg but has seen his minutes and usage rate rise against quality opponents. The guard scored 13+ points in games against Baylor, WVU, and Indiana.
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Kentucky vs Gonzaga odds
Kentucky vs Gonzaga live odds
Kentucky vs Gonzaga opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky +6 | Gonzaga -6
- Moneyline: Kentucky +210 | Gonzaga -260
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 | Under 166.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kentucky vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the team total Over in 22 of its last 33 games (+9.40 units / 25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Gonzaga.
How to watch Kentucky vs Gonzaga
| Location: | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Kentucky vs Gonzaga key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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