The Texas Tech Red Raiders have just seven losses on the season. However, one of those was a 62-51 road loss to the Kansas State Wildcats.
The Red Raiders are currently one of the best teams in the Big 12 and are heavy favorites coming into this home game. But after a stunning loss to TCU on Saturday, will Texas Tech fold another game against a Big 12 opponent?
Here are our college basketball betting picks and predictions for the Big 12 matchup between the Kansas State Wildcats and the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Kansas State vs Texas Tech odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders opened as a 12.5-point favorite. Some outlets are still holding a -12.5 number, however, others have dropped it to -12.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Kansas State vs Texas Tech predictions
Predictions made on 2/28/2022 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kansas State vs Texas Tech game info
• Location: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
• Date: Monday, February 28, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Kansas State at Texas Tech betting preview
Injuries
Kansas State: Maximus Edwards G (Out), Logan Landers F (Out), Trey Harris G (Out), Seryee Lewis F (Out).
Texas Tech: Daniel Batcho F (Questionable), Ethan Duncan G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas State vs. Texas Tech.
Kansas State vs Texas Tech picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Saturday was wacky. Not only did Texas Tech lose as a Top-10 team, but seeds 1-6 also lost over the weekend. We’re not giving the Red Raiders a pass for losing to TCU, but teams implode every year as we approach conference tournament games. Tonight, Texas Tech will be much better.
The Red Raiders are currently one of the best defenses in the nation. Texas Tech has held opponents to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage while earning nearly 24% of turnovers per game. Opponents have shot just 32.1% from three and 44% from inside the arc.
It’s also difficult to earn many boards against Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders allow just 26% of offensive rebounds this season. However, due to its aggressive play, Texas Tech will foul at an above-average rate and send teams to the foul line at a consistent pace.
Meanwhile, the Kansas State Wildcats are only shooting a 49.1% effective field goal percentage. Despite limiting turnovers, Kansas State struggles on the offensive glass, earning just 26% of offensive rebounds, playing right into the Red Raiders' hands.
From deep, the Wildcats have hit 34.2% of shots, but it’s been difficult inside, with Kansas State only shooting 47.4%.
Texas Tech is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.7% while earning 34.1% of offensive rebounds. The Red Raiders get to the line at a very high rate and have shot 31.5% from deep and 55.7% from inside.
It should be light work for the Red Raiders inside the arc. Kansas State is allowing teams to shoot 29.6% from three but have struggled inside, giving up 51.6% of makes on two-pointers.
The Wildcats should still get their fair share of turnovers, but Kansas State will likely rely too heavily on the three-point ball. Once those shots stop falling, it’ll be hard to earn second chances.
I’ll take Texas Tech against the spread, at home.
Prediction: Texas Tech -12 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Red Raiders have been consistently one of the best defenses in the nation. Opponents are hitting just 44% of shots inside the arc and the Texas Tech has held teams to 32.1% from deep this season.
The fouling can get a bit high, but Kansas State will more than likely be one-and-done on most possessions.
On the other hand, Kansas State can force some turnovers and defend the 3-point line very well. When Texas Tech scores, it’ll usually be a two-point shot. With both teams running at an average pace, I’ll grab the under in this one.
Prediction: Under 133.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Wildcats have lost three straight games and one of those was a 19-point loss at the Kansas Jayhawks.
Texas Tech is basically in the same tier at Kansas. The expectation is the Red Raiders play much better defense and they build their offense on top of that.
Pick: Texas Tech -12 (-110)
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