Kansas State vs Iowa State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Cyclones Layoff Keeps Things Close

The Kansas State Wildcats are on the verge of making things extremely tough for the March Madness odds selection committee.

After upsetting the Texas Longhorns in Round 2 of the Big 12 Tournament bracket, they’ll face the No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones for a trip to the semifinals — a team they beat to close out the regular season.

That was just the third loss in the final 14 games for the Cyclones, ranked seventh in the nation and pegged as 6-point favorites in the college basketball odds. Additionally, Iowa State is second behind Houston to emerge as champion in the conference tournament odds.

Does March Madness start a week early in Kansas City? Read below for my free Kansas State vs. Iowa State college basketball picks on Thursday, March 14.

Kansas State vs Iowa State best odds

Kansas State vs Iowa State picks and predictions

A Bottom-4 scoring team in the Big 12 at 72.2 points per game, the Kansas State Wildcats kicked it into high gear on Wednesday, overcoming a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the Texas Longhorns 78-74.

The Wildcats shot 47.2% after hitting 43.5% on the year (12th in the Big 12). They went a surprising 5-for-13 (38.5%) from distance, a massive boost for a team that tied for last in the conference during the regular season.

Perhaps the biggest adjustment was K-State’s ability to take care of the ball in the second half. After turning it over eight times in the first 20 minutes, the Wildcats — who ranked 338th out of 351 Division I teams in turnovers — coughed it up just twice after halftime.

They’ll now get a third matchup against the Iowa State Cyclones, the rubber match of a series that started with Iowa State clubbing them 78-67 on January 24 before the Wildcats won 65-58 on March 9.

The Cyclones are comfortably into the field of 64, ranking 11th overall at KenPom, trailing only the Houston Cougars in defensive efficiency. Iowa State holds its opponents to 62.1 points per game and 40.5% shooting, both second in the Big 12, limiting teams to 32.2% from downtown, a Top-5 mark in the conference.

In their matchups, the better rebounding and more aggressive team has taken the win. When Iowa State topped K-State, it dominated the glass 38-25 while taking a staggering 39 free throws, enjoying a 12-point advantage. The Wildcats turned the tides in the rematch, winning the rebound battle 36-27 while taking six more free throws, outscoring the Cyclones by five.

As impressive as Kansas State’s win over Texas was, I am wary of them finding enough offensive juice to do it again against Iowa State. However, those points are a little too juicy to pass up, and all it takes is a slow shooting start for a Cyclones team that hasn’t played since March 9 for this one to stay close.

My best bet: Kansas State +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kansas State vs Iowa State same-game parlay

Kansas State +7.5

Keshon Gilbert Under 1.5 made threes

David N'Guessan Over 5.5 rebounds

+284 at DraftKings

Keshon Gilbert leads the Cyclones in scoring but is just 15th in the conference, putting up 13.5 points per game. He’s coming off a forgettable finale against K-State, scoring 13 points on 3-for-9 shooting. It’s a game where he also missed both of his 3-point attempts, and there’s a bit of an ongoing trend here in the last 10.

Save for a hot spurt in back-to-back games in mid-February where he went 7-for-11 from distance against Houston and Texas Tech, Gilbert hasn’t hit more than one triple in a game in the other eight, going 4-for-21 at a lowly 19% clip. With his line set at 1.5 makes Thursday, look for Gilbert to do much of his damage inside the arc.

Let’s wrap this SGP with the board work of Wildcats big man David N’Guessan, who has now topped his 5.5-rebound prop in four of the last five outings, after grabbing six rebounds against Texas.

Of course, he shouldn’t have to look far for inspiration: in the regular-season finale against these same Cyclones, N’Guessan pulled down a season-best 16 rebounds.

He should again make an impact on the boards for the Wildcats.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kansas State vs Iowa State spread and Over/Under analysis

FanDuel had opened this spread at 7.5 points, but most books have dropped it down to the 5.5-6.0 range.

Iowa State is one of the best cover teams in the country. At 19-10-2 against the spread, the Cyclones are ranked just outside the Top 10 in the NCAA, though they went just 2-2-1 ATS to close out the year, including failing to cover against the Wildcats.

Kansas State is a sturdy 17-15-0 ATS and has been the better bet in this recent head-to-head, covering three of the last four.

As for the total, it’s hardly strayed from the 132.5 line, a byproduct of having one of the best scoring defenses in the country in Iowa State taking the court.

That hasn’t shown up in their games, though. Both schools are hovering around .500 with their Over/Under record, with the Cyclones going 15-16-0, and the Wildcats at a 16-15-1 mark.

Kansas State vs Iowa State betting trend to know

The Over has hit in seven of the last 10 matchups between these teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas State vs. Iowa State.

Kansas State vs Iowa State game info

Kansas State vs Iowa State key injuries

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