Indiana vs Maryland Odds, Picks and Predictions: Terrapins Primed for Big Ten Upset

Both of tonight’s Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals are near coin flips, showcasing the competitiveness of the top tier of the conference. Finding an edge between the Maryland Terrapins and the Indiana Hoosiers is a tough task, one made tougher by a somewhat surprising spread.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Maryland vs. Indiana on March 10, with tip set for 9:00 p.m. ET.

Indiana vs Maryland best odds

Indiana vs Maryland picks and predictions

Let’s spell out this handicap’s thought process. Why is Indiana favored by 1.5 to 2 points? Ken Pomeroy favors Maryland by two, giving the Terrapins a 55 percent chance of winning. What non-analytics piece of input are we missing?

A 1.5- or 2.0-point spread may be all of a bucket, but it is still a bucket. Why is Indiana favored?

The Hoosiers were 3-point underdogs at Maryland in late January, losing by 11. Take off the Terps’ hefty home-court advantage, as much as 3.9 points per Pomeroy, and that spread would have been a pick’em on a neutral court. Again, why is Indiana favored?

Maryland fell off a bit since then, going 6-4 both outright and against the spread, including yesterday’s 16-point win against Minnesota, covering as 14-point favorites. The Hoosiers have not exactly set the world on fire in that same interim, going 6-3 outright and 4-5 ATS. If anything, two nail-biting wins against Michigan showed Indiana’s flaws. Yet, the Hoosiers are favored today.

Why?

Indiana’s greatest strength, 3-point shooting percentage at 37.6 percent, is undone by its own reluctance to shoot from deep. It chucks from deep on only 24.4 percent of its field-goal attempts, last in the Big Ten. Furthermore, Maryland gives up only 34.0 percent from deep against conference opponents, No. 6 in the Big Ten.

The Terps’ defining characteristic may be their plodding pace, averaging 62.6 possessions per game in conference play, last in the league. Opponents held the ball for 19.4 seconds per possession, also last in the league. The Hoosiers operate at a quicker pace, averaging 66.9 possessions per conference game (No. 3 in the Big Ten) and averaging 16.9 seconds per possession, No. 2 in the conference, but they are also content to let opponents take their time. 

Indiana conference opponents averaged 19.0 seconds per possession, No. 12 in the Big Ten. If the Hoosiers are not the type of team that will rattle Maryland’s sluggish offense, then why is Indiana favored?

Perhaps because the Terps played late into Thursday night against Minnesota? But what is preferable, routing an opponent last night — leading by double digits for the final 18 minutes of the game — or not playing in five days?

Until someone can explain why Indiana is favored tonight, the value is betting on Maryland.

My best bet: Maryland moneyline (+115 at bet365)

Indiana vs Maryland spread analysis

The Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, losing only to red-hot Ohio State. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.

Three of those ATS losses came as favorites of two buckets or fewer, losing two of those games outright.

Maybe we should stop asking why Indiana is favored and just enjoy the opportunity to fade the Hoosiers as favorites.

If there is a traceable reason, it likely ties to senior center Trayce Jackson-Davis, one of the best players in the country. But Maryland has big men in waves, starting with seniors Donta Scott and Hakim Hart, then adding in sophomore Julian Reese. Two of those players are in the game more often than not, with all three starting. 

Jackson-Davis may dominate as he did on Jan. 31 against the Terps, scoring 18 points and grabbing 20 rebounds, but then again, that 18-point showing was one of this three-lowest in the crux of conference play. Jackson-Davis averaged 15.6 field-goal attempts in conference play; he took only 13 in that loss at Maryland.

The Terps’ front line should slow Jackson-Davis enough to render Indiana’s best offensive option less effective than usual, further bringing up the question, why are the Hoosiers favored?

Indiana vs Maryland Over/Under analysis

Indiana’s last four games have gone Over, but this handicap clearly leans toward Under 135 points.

Maryland is going to take its time every chance it gets, and Indiana will let it. The Hoosiers will be hesitant to do the thing they are best at, shoot from deep. And Indiana’s best player is going to be met by waves of Terps that have already slowed him once this season.

All those realities are reflected in this deflated total, lower than any pregame total the Hoosiers have seen since early January except for one, if looking for a reason to prefer the Over. The only totals Indiana saw this low since Jan. 1 both came against Northwestern.

Indiana vs Maryland betting trend to know

Indiana’s last three games with pregame totals lower than 137 all went Under their totals, a stretch dating back to Jan. 14. Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Maryland.

Indiana vs Maryland game info

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