Houston vs Cincinnati Odds, Picks and Predictions: Under Trend Continues for Cougars

Six games in a row. The No. 2 Houston Cougars (15-1) have won six straight, and they’ll look to make that seven in a row when they hit the road for a problematic conference test against the Cincinnati Bearcats (11-5). 

Winners of five of their last six games, the Bearcats are no slouch of their own. Will Cincy have enough firepower to hang with Houston, or are the Cougars simply on another level?

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Houston vs. Cincinnati on Sunday, January 8 to find out. 

Houston vs Cincinnati best odds

Houston vs Cincinnati picks and predictions

Houston has been utterly dominant this season. Kelvin Sampson’s team finished 32-6 a year ago and seems to have taken a greater step forward in 2022, racking up a 15-1 record. The Cougars have been blowing out opponents for the most part, scoring 75.8 points per game while surrendering just 51.0 ppg.

The advanced numbers absolutely love this team, as they check in first overall in KenPom. A suffocating defense leads the charge, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency. The offense has been terrific as well, ranking 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

Marcus Sasser (15.8 ppg) is the go-to scorer, albeit not an overly efficient one — shooting 41% from the field on 12.8 attempts per game and 32.7% from 3-point range on 7.1 attempts. Guard Tramon Mark is second with 10.1 ppg, while forwards Jarace Walker (9.7 ppg) and J’Wan Roberts (9.6 ppg) are a fearsome tandem who check in at third and fourth, respectively, in the scoring column. 

Cincinnati will offer a test. The Bearcats are 11-5 overall this season and are especially tough at home, where they have a 9-1 record at Fifth Third Arena. They’ve been a covering machine, going 9-1 ATS overall in their last 10 games and 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games. 

Wes Miller’s squad certainly has talent, led by David Dejulius’ 15.5 ppg. Landers Nolley seems to have found a home at his third school, averaging 14.9 ppg to pair with 4.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists. 

While this won’t be a cakewalk, the Cougars have handled every test well thus far, as their only loss came to No. 7 Alabama. So far they have faced five teams with a higher KenPom ranking than the Bearcats — Oregon, Saint Mary’s, Alabama, Virginia, UCF) — and are 4-1 in those contests. 

A common theme in those games is that they tended to be low scoring, which has been the case when Houston faces its tougher opponents. The Cougars are 37-15-1 to the Under in their last 53 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. I’m anticipating this one going Under the total of 135.5. 

My best bet: Under 135.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Houston vs Cincinnati spread analysis

The spread is set at -9.5 in Houston’s favor. 

Both teams have been very profitable this season, with Houston being 11-5 ATS while Cincinnati is 11-4. 

As noted above, Cincy has been on a tremendous run ATS, especially at home — where the Bearcats have covered eight straight. One concern on their side is they’ve struggled when stepping up in competition, going just 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. 

The Cougars have been road warriors, posting a 4-0 ATS record in their last four road games. They’ve frankly been on a hot streak for a while now, going 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games overall. This is a tremendous basketball program that has been playing at an elite level for a while now, and the bookmakers have been very slow to catch up. 

While Houston ranks first overall in KenPom, Cincinnati can be found down at No. 72. The Bearcats rank at a similar level on both sides of the ball, checking in at 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

If I’m playing, I’m laying. I’m not betting against Houston until further notice. As additional comfort, the favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools. 

Houston vs Cincinnati Over/Under analysis

I’ve been noting Houston’s run to the Under when it plays against the tougher opponents on its schedule, noting the trend while having a best bet on the Under in my preview for the Alabama game.  

I certainly think it's a trend at least worth monitoring, if not backing. The Cougars don’t fave many difficult tests in the regular season, as they typically dispatch most conference opponents with relative ease. They’re head and shoulders above the rest of the AAC.

While Houston has the top spot in KenPom, the next-best team (UCF) can’t be found until you go all the way down to No. 49. Houston’s games against quality opponents, therefore, are generally few and far between and tend to play out differently than its other games on the schedule. 

The Cougars are 13-4-1 to the Under in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record, and I’ll be taking that trend to continue on Sunday. 

Cincinnati’s games have also tended to tighten up when playing against tougher opponents. The Bearcats are 43-20 to the Under in their last 63 home games against a team with a winning record, and are 35-17 to the Under in their last 52 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600.

Houston vs Cincinnati betting trend to know

Houston is 37-15-1 to the Under in its last 53 games against at eam with a winning percentage above .600.  Find more College basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Houston State.

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