Houston vs Alabama Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s College Basketball Game

It's a showdown of two national title contenders and our college basketball expert Rohit Ponnaiya believes this game will be tight throughout. Find out why he's taking the points with Alabama below.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Nov 26, 2024 • 13:32 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Labaron Philon Alabama Crimson Tide NCAAB
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The Inaugural Players Era Festival tips off on Thursday night in Paradise, Nevada with an eight-team tournament featuring some of the best teams in NCAA basketball. The first game in the Impact Division will be a clash between the No. 6 Houston Cougars and No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide at 8 p.m. ET.

The Cougars are 4-point favorites but my Houston vs. Alabama predictions are backing the Tide to keep things close.

Here are my best free college basketball picks for this showdown between national title contenders on November 26.

Houston vs Alabama prediction

My best bet
Alabama +4 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

The analytics love the Houston Cougars who are rated as the No. 1 team in the country according to KenPom and Bart Torvik. That said, while they've been dominating weak competition they lost their only game against a quality opponent this year, falling 74-69 at home against Auburn.

The Alabama Crimson Tide also lost to the first-ranked opponent they faced when they played Purdue on the road but they beat Illinois 100-87 last week. They were able to win by a comfortable margin despite an ugly performance from All-American guard Mark Sears who scored zero points in 21 minutes. Sears averaged 21.5 ppg on 51/44/86 shooting splits last season so he should bounce back.

A silver lining from that off-night from Sears was that five-star freshman Labaron Philon racked up 16 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds, while sophomore guard Aden Holloway dropped 18 points off the bench. With those young guards showing improvement, the sky is the limit for the Tide who returned three starters from a squad that made it to the Final Four last season.

Houston thrives at pressuring ball-handlers, forcing turnovers and turning them into easy buckets on the fast break. However, Alabama does a great job of taking care of the ball (36th in turnover rate) and is 19th in the country in transition defense per ShotQualityBets.

The Cougars are perennially an elite defensive team under Kelvin Sampson but their offense has been surprisingly efficient this season. Houston is shooting an unsustainable 48.8% from 3-point range with leading scorer Emanuel Sharpe boasting a 73.3 3PT% despite shooting just 37.3% from the field last year. 

There will be significant regression from Houston when it comes to shooting the ball and I'm expecting positive regression from Sears, which has me taking the points with Bama.

Houston vs Alabama same-game parlay

Alabama +4

Under 149.5

Labaron Philon Over 3.5 rebounds

The total opened at 152.5 and early money came in on the Under, dropping it to 149.5. That makes sense since the Cougars are second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and play at one of the slowest tempos in the country. In addition, the Tide have done a far better job of defending than last season but haven't been shooting as well from the arc. 

Philon is earning more playing time and he pulled down seven rebounds in a season-high 33 minutes versus Illinois. He has logged 5+ boards in three of his last four games and even with fewer possessions in this contest, he should eclipse 3.5 rebounds.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!

Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.

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Houston vs Alabama odds

Houston vs Alabama live odds

Houston vs Alabama opening odds

  • Spread: Houston -3.5 | Alabama +3.5
  • Moneyline: Houston -180 | Alabama +150
  • Over/Under: Over 152.5 | Under 152.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Houston vs Alabama betting trend to know

Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+4.75 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Alabama.

How to watch Houston vs Alabama

Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Tuesday, 11-26-2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: TBS

Houston vs Alabama key injuries

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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