Duke vs Syracuse Odds, Picks and Predictions: Blue Devils Getting Too Much Love

Two college basketball bluebloods will do battle at the JMA Wireless Dome on Saturday night, as the Duke Blue Devils visit the Syracuse Orange.

Though it’s been a down year for both Duke (18-8) and Syracuse (16-10), a March Madness berth is still likely in the cards for each team, barring a late-season collapse. This is a game that neither school will take lightly.

Which program will reign supreme in this spot? 

Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Duke vs. Syracuse on Saturday, February 18.

Duke vs Syracuse best odds

Duke vs Syracuse picks and predictions

The Duke Blue Devils have played so poorly on the road this year, they really don’t deserve to be visiting favorites over a winning team. I like the Syracuse Orange to win outright but will grab the insurance point with them ATS as my best bet for this tilt.

Duke owns a -3.9-point differential in road games this year, contrasting sharply with its overall +7.1-point differential on the campaign. The Blue Devils’ offense has dropped from 71.4 ppg overall to 67.6 ppg on the road. 

Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach — the only Duke players averaging double-digit points this year — have had their share of trouble away from home. The former drops from 15.6 ppg at home to 14.5 ppg on the road, and the latter falls from 13.3 ppg to 11.5 ppg.

Duke allows only 64.3 ppg overall — good for 43rd in the country — but that figure spikes to 71.4 ppg outside of Cameron Indoor, which is below the nationwide average. 

The Orange haven’t been lights-out at home this season, but like most teams, they enjoy playing in front of their own fans.

Syracuse owns a +8.8 point differential at home this year, compared to a +4.2 point differential overall. The Orange offense benefits more when it comes to playing at JMA Wireless Dome, as their ppg figure spikes from 74.6 to 78.3. They also see multiple-point jumps in FG% (46.9 to 48.7) and 3PT% (35.7 to 37.4).

Senior guard Joseph Girard III takes and makes more threes on average at home, going 3.0-for-7.7 (39.1%), compared to 2.6-for-7.2 (36.7%) on the road. Considering he’s averaging 19.3 ppg over the Orange’s three-game winning streak, he’ll be one to watch for on Saturday night.

Syracuse also boasts freshman guard Judah Mintz — who’s reached double-figures in six straight — as well as 6-for-11 senior center Jesse Edwards. 

The latter could be key to breaking Duke’s defense, which is 253rd in the nation in shooting proximity allowed, per Haslametrics. Edwards should get plenty of opportunities at the rim in this one.

My best bet: Syracuse +1 (-110 at BetRivers)

Duke vs Syracuse spread analysis

There’s a slew of trends to support a play on Syracuse in this spot.

Both teams enter this one on three days of rest, which suits the Orange just fine. They’re 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in that situation this season. Syracuse is also 11-4 SU and 12-3-0 ATS on three days of rest, regardless of how much time its opponent has had off. 

The Orange are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage below .400.

Duke has been a dreadful bet of late, as it’s 2-10 ATS in its last 12 overall. The Blue Devils are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning SU record. 

All signs point to a minor upset for the Orange.

Duke vs Syracuse Over/Under analysis

Both teams have seen slightly higher totals on average this year, but considering each squad is 3-1 to the Under in their last four overall, it looks like a fair line. 

Bettors shouldn’t expect a barrage of 3-pointers from either side on Saturday night. Duke is 234th in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions against the average opponent, while Syracuse ranks 330th in the same department. 

The Blue Devils are 28th in the country at defending the three-ball (30.4% against), while the Orange are allowing a 32.4% opponent 3PT rate at home, slightly better than the NCAA average. 

Neither squad will look to push the tempo either, as Syracuse is 164th in pace, while Duke is 285th. There also figure to be few gimmies at the charity stripe, with the Orange ranking ninth in free throws allowed to the average opponent per 100 trips up the court, while the Blue Devils are close behind in 10th.

Trend bettors should note that the Under is 9-3 in Duke’s last 12 road games, and 4-1-1 in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Under is also 9-4 in Syracuse’s last 13 games against teams at .600 or better.

Duke vs Syracuse betting trend to know

Duke is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Syracuse.

Duke vs Syracuse game info

Duke vs Syracuse key injuries

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