The No. 4 seeded Duke Blue Devils face off against No. 5 seed Pittsburgh Panthers in the ACC Tournament on Thursday afternoon.
The Panthers knocked off Georgia Tech last night, and are looking to pick up a statement win and secure their first NCAA tournament berth since 2016. But it won't be easy against a talented Blue Devils squad that's favored to win the conference tournament.
College basketball odds hit the board with the Blue Devils as six-point chalk, and the Over/Under at 141.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Pittsburgh vs. Duke on Thursday, March 9.
Duke vs Pittsburgh best odds
Duke vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions
Sometimes a line looks disrespectful toward the underdogs. Sure Pitt is playing on a back-to-back and Duke will enjoy the support of the local fans at Greensboro Coliseum, but both of these schools still had an identical 14-6 record in conference play.
The Blue Devils ended their regular season with six straight wins, but their best victory during that stretch came against a North Carolina team that has arguably been the biggest disappointment in the country this season.
Pitt finished its regular season on a sour note, but those two defeats shouldn't overshadow a season of strong play. Sure, losing to a mediocre Notre Dame team is a rough look, but those sorts of outlier performances can happen on the road. Losing by just two points on the road against the No. 14 Miami Hurricanes is nothing to be ashamed about either.
The Blue Devils have gone just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games. It seems almost crazy that they're now spotting six points to a Pitt team that has gone 21-6 ATS in its previous 27 contests, and has one of the most potent offenses in the country.
In addition, ACC coach of the year Jeff Capel can lean on the experience of a Panthers lineup led by four seniors and a 23-year-old junior in Blake Hinson. The Blue Devils have four freshman starters and another serving as their sixth man under first-year head coach Jon Scheyer. Give me the points with the dogs.
My best bet: Pittsburgh +6 (-105 at DraftKings)
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Duke vs Pittsburgh spread analysis
The Panthers needed just a single win in the final week of the regular season to grab the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, but they were upset by Notre Dame before losing a heartbreaker on the road against Miami. That moved them into a three-way tie for third place in the ACC standings, with tie-breakers dropping them to the fifth seed.
That forced the Panthers into a second-round matchup against Georgia Tech, where they jumped out to an early lead and held on for an 89-81 victory.
The Blue Devils were able to sneak just ahead of them in the standings after going 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six games. In their last contest, they traveled to Chapel Hill and beat the Tar Heels 62-57 as four-point road pups.
These teams previously faced off in Durham on Jan. 11. The Panthers had an 11-point lead at the half, but the Blue Devils stormed back after the break to win by a final score of 77-69. Duke shot just 36% from the floor in that contest, but had a 47-25 edge on the glass.
Kyle Filipowski leads Duke with 15.0 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, while junior point guard Jeremy Roach (13.1 ppg, 3.2 apg) is the elder statesman of the group.
The Blue Devils have been shooting the ball poorly and rank just 206th in the country with a 50.2 eFG%. They've been far better on the other end of the floor, and rank 27th in the county in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
This will be a clash of strength against strength, with the Panthers ranking 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Four players on Pitt are averaging double-digits in points, led by All-ACC selections Jamarius Burton (15.6 ppg, 4.3 apg) and Hinson (16.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg).
Duke vs Pittsburgh Over/Under analysis
It's tough to handicap the total in this matchup because the Panthers have a highly-efficient offense and a struggling defense, while the Blue Devils have a lockdown defense and a stagnant offense.
The Panthers put up an impressive 76.1 ppg against conference foes, but they've also allowed 82.3 ppg over their last four contests. They've been especially poor on the defensive glass, and allowed an undersized Yellow Jackets team to grab 12 offensive rebounds last night.
That's cause for concern against a massive Duke team that ranks fourth in the country in rebound rate, and pulled down an incredible 20 offensive boards during that previous meeting. The Blue Devils also use that length to clog up the paint and protect the rim on defense.
Freshman center Dereck Lively received inconsistent playing time earlier in the season, but has emerged as a defensive monster lately. Since regaining his spot in the starting lineup on Jan. 28, the 7-foot-1 Lively has blocked 3.1 shots per game, helping give Duke the second-highest block rate in the ACC.
The Blue Devils were also second in the conference in both scoring defense (66.7 ppg allowed against ACC foes) and opponent field goal percentage (41.4%).
That stingy defense combined with their inconsistent shooting and sluggish pace (292nd in adjusted tempo) has led to some low-scoring contests for Duke.
Duke vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
The Blue Devils are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, while the Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their previous 12 contests against a team above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Pittsburgh.
Duke vs Pittsburgh game info
| Conference: | ACC Quarterfinals |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Thursday, March 9, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
