Duke vs Miami Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wong Figures Out Duke Defense

Isaiah Wong struggled from the floor in this matchup two weeks ago, but we're expecting something much different tonight. Our NCAAB betting picks are backing the junior guard to go Over his points total against Duke's vulnerable pick-and-roll defense.

Last Updated: Feb 6, 2023 12:47 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Isaiah Wong Miami Hurricanes ACC college basketball
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It's a Big Monday affair between the Duke Blue Devils and Miami Hurricanes, both of which are jockeying for positioning in the ACC standings.

Duke is coming off an emotional win against arch-rival North Carolina, a game that resulted in the resurgence of freshman phenom Isaiah Lively. The Blue Devils had also won two of three games before that rivalry matchup.

How good is Miami? It's still such a difficult question to answer. The Canes added pieces to a team that was 40 minutes away from a Final Four a year ago, and as a result, the roster's overall talent improved.

However, they have had a similar season to the one they did last season. They came into this matchup off a win against Clemson in a game where they could finally close strong – something that had been a problem before it.

I break down the matchup and more in my best college basketball betting picks for Duke vs. Miami below. 

Duke vs Miami best odds

Duke vs Miami picks and predictions

This is a tough ask for Duke. Two weeks ago, these two teams played and Duke won a game that came down to the final possession. Now, Duke is fresh off its biggest win of the season and has to immediately regroup and travel to Miami for a game against a very good opponent.

I don't have faith in them to be able to do that, but with that said, there's a better bet on the board. It involves a fade of the Duke defense, which has been successful most of the season. So, to the prop market we go. 

Two weeks ago, when these two teams met, I grabbed Isaiah Wong's point total of Over 15.5. Wong had one of the worst shooting performances of the season but got into successful positions. Fool me once? I'm riding this again. So much of my analysis has stayed the same in such a short time, and I like the spot more with the redemption angle. 

Wong remains the most used and effective pick-and-roll option for the Canes. He is the primary ball handler on over 45% of those sets and he usually has excellent success scoring. He averages .98 points per possession and scores 44% of the time. Both rates are near the top of the ACC and rank highly nationwide. 

Duke hasn't magically improved its pick-and-roll coverage. Sure, it's taken some baby steps, but it still struggles to defend it as a team. It gives up a 50% effective field goal percentage on pick-and-rolls and sits in the Bottom 8th percentile, allowing .86 points per possession. Its opponents' primary pick-and-roll options since facing Wong? They've done pretty well:

Saturday night, R.J. Davis scored 11 points against Duke for North Carolina. To end January, Tyree Appleby scored a career-high 27 points for Wake Forest. In the game after Miami, Sean Pedulla scored 16 points for Virginia Tech.

As previously mentioned, the Canes high-ball screen offense has been rated higher than all three schools. This example proves that the Duke pick-and-roll coverage is essentially the same as it was when it first played Miami.

I'm backing this confidently again, just as I did in the first matchup. His shooting percentage of 25% was the second worst in conference play this season. I don't think Duke did anything special with its coverage of him, and I'll chalk it primarily up to an unlucky shooting night. I don't think that will happen again. 

My best bet: Isaiah Wong Over 15.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

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Duke vs Miami spread analysis

Spot-wise, you have to love Miami here for things that I've previously mentioned. I didn't hammer home the travel aspect for each team enough, though. 

Duke's young team has been affected by rest this season. It's 2-5 against the spread with a rest disadvantage this season and while that doesn't necessarily apply here, travel immediately after a win over your rival creates a similar scenario.

These two teams are very comparable in talent, and because of Duke's ball-screen defending issues, I will play a unit on Miami to cover the 2.5-point spread available at DraftKings.

Duke vs Miami Over/Under analysis

My projections give me 146 and college basketball odds have this set at 145.5 — naturally, I see no edge.

However, if the two teams start slow, I will be looking for an in-game spot to grab the Over. Throughout this article, I've documented the short turnaround for both teams, having played Saturday.

If that results in a slow start, there may be some good opportunities to catch a number in the 135 range or below. Otherwise, I won't be interested in this matchup's total.

The Over has hit in five of the last six Miami home games. In addition, it's 14-3 in the previous 17 home games against a team with a losing road record. If the Canes are controlling this game, it's likely to go Over. That's another thing to look for in-game. 

Duke vs Miami betting trend to know

Duke is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Miami.

Duke vs Miami game info

Location: Watsco Center, Coral Gables, FL
Date: Monday, February 6, 2023
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET

Duke vs Miami key injuries

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