Duke vs Miami Odds, Picks and Predictions: Filipowski Powers Blue Devils in South Beach

Kyle Filipowski has played Miami well throughout his career and this year's edition of the Hurricanes lacks the size needed to match up. Expect the star big man to lead the way as the Blue Devils continue their road trip.

Feb 21, 2024 • 12:58 ET • 4 min read
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Kyle Filipowski Duke Blue Devils ACC college basketball
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The streaking Duke Blue Devils slide down to South Beach to face the Miami Hurricanes on Wednesday night.

The Blue Devils bring with them a four-game winning run and the No. 8 ranking in the land. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, haven’t won in their last four outings and could be down two of their top talents for this ACC affair.

I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this conference clash and give my best college basketball basketball picks and predictions for Duke at Miami on February 21.

Duke vs Miami best odds

Duke vs Miami picks and predictions

Kyle Filipowski is very familiar with the Miami Hurricanes. Despite this being only his sophomore season in Durham, the Duke Blue Devils star big man will be facing the Hurricanes for the fourth time in his short collegiate career.

Duke clashed with the Canes three times last year when Filipowski was a freshman. The 7-footer played beyond his years, putting up 17 points and 14 rebounds in the first meeting, nine points and nine boards in the second, and scoring 17 points along with 11 rebounds in the Blue Devils’ win over Miami in the ACC Tournament final.

This current version of the Hurricanes is not last year’s team, which cracked the Final Four. Miami is among the bottom defensive programs in the ACC and runs a smaller guard-centric lineup, with only three true frontcourt players and one 6-foot-10 freshman as the only body bigger than 6-foot-8 in the regular rotation.

Filipowski is a unique talent at his size, with the ability to do damage inside and out. He can back down smaller defenders in the post and draw out taller matchups with his shooting range. 

The Blue Devils are one of the best attacks in the land, ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency inside the ACC, and do their best work in the halfcourt set. Duke will anchor that offense in the towering Filipowski rather than run with quicker Miami lineup tonight.

Sportsbooks have Filipowski’s scoring total at 15.5 points against the Canes, which sits below his season scoring rate of 17 points per game. His scoring outputs have been up and down the past seven games, with foul trouble digging into his floor time.

Player projections for the Blue Devils’ big man call for as many as 19 points tonight, with my number coming out just past 17 points against the diminutive Miami lineup. He’ll pick up points in the paints, from the perimeter, and at the foul line with the Canes running out of answers inside.

My best bet: Kyle Filipowski Over 15.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Duke vs Miami same-game parlay

Kyle Filipowski Over 15.5 points

Kyle Filipowski Over 8.5 rebounds

Duke moneyline

Filipowski’s had success against the Hurricanes in his short time with the Dukies and player projections call for 16 points or more tonight.

The 7-footer doesn’t get much pushback on the boards from a smaller Miami lineup with only one true big man.

The Blue Devils just have too many options, with Filipowski inside and their perimeter threats taking on a Miami defense that struggles to guard the triple.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Duke vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Devils opened as big as 6-point favorites in Miami and that spread slimmed as low as -5 with most of the market at -5.5 on Wednesday morning. Injury updates will dictate where this line moves before the 7 p.m. ET tipoff.

The Hurricanes will be without standout guard Nijel Pack tonight after he suffered a lower-body injury on Feb. 14 and missed the Canes’ loss to Boston College. Pack averages almost 14 points and 3.6 assists per game.

Miami is holding out hope forward Matt Cleveland can suit up, however. Cleveland has been dealing with an illness and didn’t practice earlier in the week. Head coach Jim Larranaga seemed optimistic Cleveland (14 ppg, 5.8 rpg) would play against the Blue Devils.

Duke is also dealing with a missing piece, as sophomore guard Tyrese Proctor is a question mark due to a concussion suffered against Wake Forest on Feb. 12. Proctor (10 ppg, 3.5 apg) sat out the victory over Florida State this past weekend.

The Blue Devils need all hands on deck for this challenging stretch of schedule, with this stop in Miami serving as the second of three straight road games for the Dukies. They’ve been a solid team away from Cameron Indoor, boasting a 5-3 SU record and 3-4-1 ATS mark in true road games.

The Hurricanes' ailments come at the worst time, with the programs circling the drain with a month left in conference play. Miami has lost four in a row and sits near the bottom of the ACC standings. The Canes are 11-3 SU at home on the season with an 8-5-1 ATS record as hosts.

Tonight’s total hit the board at 150.5 points and has slimmed to 149.5 at some sportsbooks, as of Wednesday morning. 

Miami has been one of the best Under bets in college hoops in the second half of the schedule, playing below the total in nine of its last dozen games. The Hurricanes are 8-6 Over/Under at home on the year.

Duke is 11-14 O/U overall but has also leaned to the Under in recent outings, staying below the closing number in four straight contests and six of its last seven games. The Blue Devils are 3-5 O/U in their eight true away games.

Duke vs Miami betting trend to know

Duke has cashed in on the first-half moneyline in 25 of its last 32 games, earning +10.70 units in that span. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Miami.

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Duke vs Miami game info

Location: Watsco Center, Coral Gables, FL
Date: Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET

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