Clemson vs North Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tar Heels Take Down Tigers

The Clemson Tigers will travel to face the No. 3-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in a prime-time affair looking to solidify a spotty NCAA Tournament resume.

The Tigers' season has been up and down so far. They got a nice trio of wins against TCU, South Carolina, and Alabama, but lost to Memphis, Virginia, and Duke, leaving their resume lacking. It needs a true statement win, and the matchup tonight gives it that opportunity, but it will take a lot of work. 

North Carolina could make a case for the best team in the college basketball odds. It has rolled through the last month with wins in 11 of its previous 12 games. It comes into this one-off what is likely the most fulfilling of those: a nine-point win against arch-rival Duke.

Find out our best bet as we give our free college basketball picks and predictions for Clemson vs. North Carolina on Tuesday, February 6th.

Clemson vs North Carolina best odds

Clemson vs North Carolina picks and predictions

What has put the North Carolina Tar Heels into the conversation of being a national title contender is the improvements their defense has made in such a short period. 

Just a month ago, the Tar Heels had a Ken Pom defensive efficiency that ranked outside the Top 30 and an effective field-goal defense outside the Top 50. Now, that unit is what you'd consider elite, reaching the Top 20 in both categories. You could argue that it's the team's strength. Since its four-point loss to Kentucky, North Carolina has been in the absolute top tier of defenses, ranking third in defense efficiency per Bart Torvik.

"We realized that if we help each other out, the defense would look phenomenal," senior guard R.J. Davis said a few weeks ago. "And it has."

I expect them to lean on that team defense tonight and constrain the flow of the Clemson Tigers offense, particularly against PJ Hall.

It's strength on strength here. Clemson will enter with the most efficient post-up offense in the ACC with Hall leading the way, shooting just over 52% on post-ups. Conversely, it'll face the best post-up defense in the conference, as North Carolina allows 38% shooting on such sets. The Tar Heels allowed 22 points to Duke's Kyle Filipowski, but he had to work quite hard for them, hoisting up 18 shots. He also has a broader array of offensive skills that Hall lacks. 

We already have one data point this season for this matchup, which was when North Carolina went into Clemson and won by 10. Hall was held solidly in check, scoring just 10 points while going 0 of 5 from three and 4 of 13 from the field. We shouldn't expect tonight to be any different when this UNC defense has done nothing but improve. It also doesn't hurt that Hall doesn't exactly thrive on the road, as he typically scores and shoots less.

I'm taking the elite North Carolina defense to continue to show signs of improvement and, yet again, keep Hall in check here. He has yet to demonstrate the ability to score against great interior defenses and, outside of his 10-point showing in the first matchup with North Carolina, he's also struggled against the other elite post-up defenses.

Virginia Tech is the only other team in the ACC he's played against with a Top-3 post-up defense. To the surprise of no one, it was another slow night for Hall when he scored just 11 points and went 4 of 13 from the field. I will have to see him doing it for myself against a top-tier defense, and we simply haven't. 

My best bet: PJ Hall Under 17.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)

Clemson vs North Carolina same-game parlay

PJ Hall Under 17.5 points

Armando Bacot Under 13.5 points

North Carolina 1H moneyline

+320 at bet365

The first leg we'll add to the Under on Hall's points prop is Armando Bacot Under 13.5 points. Bacot is coming off his best performance of the season when he scored 25 points against Duke. We'll see some regression here. North Carolina has more direct routes to scoring against Clemson than to pound with the bigs in the paint. Clemson's post-up defense is worse than North Carolina's, but it's still effective, holding opponents to .76 points per possession.

The second leg is for North Carolina to enter the locker room with the lead. The Heels have been fantastic at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.2 points, one of the best marks in college basketball. With a massive advantage in the backcourt, I'd expect them to continue this thread.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Clemson vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

I lean toward North Carolina to cover here, and if you can find it at 6.5 points, I would still consider playing it. Most books have moved to 7.5, but a few rogue 6.5 lines remain. 

That said, you'll get some slight value on the pregame number if you play this live. I expect a valiant effort from Clemson early. It has the advantage of already seeing this North Carolina team once and the situational motivation of knowing how badly it needs a statement win.

However, I'm not sure Clemson can overcome a pick-and-roll defense that allows the third most points in the ACC. RJ Davis is well-poised to thrive with that mismatch. He struggled shooting in the first matchup, just 5-for-14 from the field. It isn't easy to expect one of the best scorers in the ACC to do that a second time.

I'm leaning Under here but have no play. 

My projection of 153 was closely aligned with the number that oddsmakers served up. North Carolina has multiple offensive advantages, but Clemson might need help to score, given that the Heels should do a good job limiting Hall. That should lend itself to an Under and likely a slower pace than we may expect. The last matchup between these two soared Under in a 65-55 final. 

Clemson vs North Carolina betting trend to know

PJ Hall has scored Under 17.5 points in both matchups with the Top 3 ACC post-up defenses (according to points per possession allowed). Find more college basketball betting trends for Clemson vs. North Carolina.

Clemson vs North Carolina game info

Clemson vs North Carolina key injuries

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