Cal State Bakersfield vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: Roadrunners In Above Their Heads

Non-conference in-state rivalry games are usually the norm in November, and we have what should be a fun contest between undefeated California schools when Cal State Bakersfield meets No. 21 USC Trojans at Galen Center in Los Angeles. 

The Roadrunners won their home opener but failed to cover the spread in their 79-78 victory over Southern Utah. USC opened their season away from sunny Los Angeles and defeated Kansas State 82-69, covering a -3.0-point spread.

I break down tonight's college basketball odds give you my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Cal State Bakersfield at USC on November 9.

Cal State Bakersfield vs USC best odds

Cal State Bakersfield vs USC picks and predictions

These instate rivalries are fun for the players because teams like Cal State Bakersfield can upset a giant, and beating the USC Trojans would be a Herculean task for CSB head coach Rod Barnes’ young but feisty club. 

Maybe “rivalry” is too strong a word. These schools have played each other twice, once in 2013 and more recently in 2018, with the same result–USC won both games by less than 15 points, and Bakersfield covered the 2018 meeting but pushed in 2013–Barnes was the coach in both matchups.

Last season, Bakersfield scored the seventh-fewest points per game in the Big West, but they were second in points allowed with a 2023 ATS record of 14-17. The Roadrunners were 3-12 as the away team but had a much better 6-9-0 ATS record wearing the away jerseys. 

Scoring the basketball was a problem for CSB last season, and it appears it could be a problem again. Last season's leading scorer, Kaleb Higgins, was the only Roadrunner to score in double-figures in their one-point home victory over SUU. No one else scored more than eight points, while the Roadrunners shot 29% from downtown and lost the battle of the boards 42-40.

None of that bodes well for winning this contest against the taller, more experienced Trojans and preseason Pac-12 Player of the Year Boogie Ellis.

Ellis led USC over Kansas State with 24 points and eight caroms. Ellis also chipped in with five assists and three steals to lead a group of Trojans, with four of their five starters reaching double-digits. USC committed 18 turnovers, was beaten on the boards 42-40, and got worked on the offensive glass 23-10. 

I don’t believe Bakersfield will win this game. USC is too deep and has too much length for that, but the Trojans committed 18 turnovers against K-State and couldn’t keep the Wildcats off the offensive glass. CSB did a terrific job guarding inside the arc, a below-average 34.5% from downtown, but won the defensive end of the rebounding battle while committing a dozen turnovers.

Finally, USC is the better team, but 137 points aren’t enough for this game. Neither team is very good at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, and second-chance points should abound. This contest will be played much faster than Bakersfield is used to playing, which should produce more than a dozen turnovers for the visitors, and USC will likely have more than 15 miscues of their own that will lead to points off of transition. Both groups are good shooters inside the arc, with CSB being the better of the two from downtown, but USC will shoot better at home than they did at Kansas. USC has the deeper, more experienced bench, and they’ll clean up in garbage time over the younger and less experienced Roadrunners. Take the Over in this one. 

My best bet: Over 137 (-110 at Caesars)

Cal State Bakersfield vs USC same-game parlay

Over 137.5

USC -24.5

+264 at DraftKings

DraftKings isn’t going to give us many markets for this contest, and that’s okay. They have a great price on the Over but also give us the best number for the spread. Some books have -26 points, and DK offers a much better number the Trojans should be able to cover.

USC plays extremely fast, and I don’t believe Bakersfield can keep up with them. They aren’t a deep team at all, and that will hurt them if USC turns this one into a track meet. We’ll likely see more CSB turnovers than the 12 they committed against Southern Utah at home, and between the faster pace and a boisterous home crowd, USC will get some layups.

Finally, the turnovers, free points, and poor boxing out on the offensive glass will take its toll on both teams. That will lead to this game exceeding the total, and the deeper Trojans bench cleans up in garbage time and covers the spread. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cal State Bakersfield vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

None of the US sportsbooks have posted a moneyline yet, but a few offshore sportsbooks do offer a moneyline. Unless you believe CSB can pull off a major upset, the moneyline is not in play. USC is a -10000 favorite, and $10,000 to win $100 isn’t usually a good idea.

DraftKings has the best number on the spread (- 24.5, -110), while the rest of the US books have USC -26.5 with a price of -110. If anything, the spread will probably shift towards Bakersfield, as covering 27 points seems difficult for USC to accomplish, and bettors most likely will pound that number.

The total opened at 137.5 points, which is available at DraftKings, while Caesars opened at 137 (-110), and neither number has budged. I’m hoping for the public to attack the low total for some CLV and, hopefully, an easier time covering the total.

The only “lean” I am considering is grabbing the +26.5 points and taking a stab at CSB covering. If they can walk the ball up the floor and get the same open looks from beyond the arc USC allowed K-State, the Roadrunners shoot well from downtown and would have a good chance at covering. 

Cal State Bakersfield vs USC betting trend to know

Over is 7-1 in Trojans' last eight home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Cal State Bakersfield vs. USC.

Cal State Bakersfield vs USC game info

Cal State Bakersfield vs USC key injuries

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