Baylor vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Quick Tempo Drives This Game Over

Although Baylor and Texas have made names for themselves on defense, it's the offense that will take center stage tonight. With both teams playing at a quick tempo, our college basketball picks expect this to go Over the total of 146.

Last Updated: Jan 30, 2023 3:18 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Marcus Carr Texas Longhorns NCAAB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

One of the premier games of the night in college basketball brings us a fantastic Big 12 battle when the Texas Longhorns travel to take on the Baylor Bears.

The Longhorns are coming off a blow-out loss to Tennessee over the weekend — losing by 13. It's been an eventful season for Texas after firing Head Coach Chris Beard in the wake of felony domestic violence charges. However, despite that, it's managed to keep things reasonably afloat and will come into this game with a 17-4 record.

The Bears had an up-and-down season, but you'd have to say they are trending in the right direction. Since blowing a late lead at Kansas State, they've won six straight games, including their latest against Arkansas.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Texas. 

Baylor vs Texas best odds

Baylor vs Texas picks and predictions

For the past decade, these teams have built their programs' reputations on defense. However — for the better part of the season — both of these teams have had their defense fail them, which has led to a slightly disappointing start. I'm on the Over as my best bet tonight, the above is a big reason why, but there are several others.

For starters, both of these teams play with pace. It hasn't always been that way, but it is this season. I'm projecting a total possession amount of 73 for this matchup and will likely see a few more when late-game fouling starts to occur. Both of these teams regularly play games over 70 possessions, and given the half-court struggles of Texas at times, I wouldn't be shocked to see it emphasize transition in this matchup.

Both teams see offensive advantages that they should be able to consistently exploit.

For the Longhorns, that advantage lies in two places. One of those is in transition. I've already mentioned they would be served well to speed games up, and tonight the matchup may also dictate it.

Baylor's transition defense is one of the worst in the Big 12, allowing over a point per possession in transition and just over 51% shooting. Texas' athletes thrive here, which is why its transition scoring has been the strength of its team.

The other advantage is the Longhorns' spot-up shooters. The Bears' no middle-defense has been thrashed this season by quick ball reversals and/or talented shooters. Of course, Texas can do both things, but I want to highlight its shooting ability.

Marcus Carr is shooting a blistering 63% eFG on spot-up sets, and both Rice and Tyrese Hunter have posted an eFG% over 50%. That's a significant issue for a Baylor team who has been susceptible to these shooters all season.

Texas — who's allowed over 72 points per game over its last three outings will also struggle defensively.

In this matchup, the Bears should be able to backdoor the Longhorns to death with cutting actions. The Bears have several players who are great at this, and with Flo Thamba back in the fold, that number goes up.

Thamba, Caleb Lohner, and Jalen Bridges have all shot over 60% from the field on cutters this season. These are the same actions that have caused fits for Texas all season. Anybody who watched this weekend's game over Tennessee could see that, and the numbers back it up.

I expect that to stay the same, with Baylor being well-suited to attack this. In addition to this, its transition attack is outstanding.

Take the Over tonight. The athleticism of both teams should be on display in what figures to be a high pace, entertaining affair.

My best bet: Over 146 (-110 at PointsBet)

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Baylor vs Texas spread analysis

I'm finding it difficult to separate these two teams and won't have a side. 

My projections have Baylor by two points, but when you factor in the home court, there's really no edge. As noted above, both of these teams enjoy offensive advantages, and it's really going to come down to which team's defense can show up to make enough plays.

I trust a guard like Adam Flager of Baylor more than Marcus Carr or Tyrese Hunter of Texas. I also trust Head Coach Scott Drew more than Rodney Terry. With that being said, the atmosphere I'm expecting tonight in Austin may make both of those edges go out the window.

If the Bears can weather the early storm, then they'll have a great chance here, but nothing is compelling enough to make me have a play. 

Baylor vs Texas Over/Under analysis

We're expecting points tonight — as outlined in our best bet — and the betting market has also gone that way. Since opening, this total has ticked up at least a half point on some books and even more on others. According to our Covers matchup page, the Over collected just 40% of the bets. That's an indication of a reverse line movement which is generally a good indication of where the sharp money is going.

Texas has been on an Over hot streak recently. Its games have gone Over in seven straight at home and 19-2 in its last 13 overall.

Baylor vs Texas betting trend to know

Texas has had seven consecutive home games go Over the posted total at the tip. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Texas.

Baylor vs Texas game info

Location: Moody Center, Austin, TX
Date: Monday, January 30, 2023
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

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