Possibly the most intriguing game of the second round of the 2023 SEC Tournament will see the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks face off with the No. 7 Auburn Tigers in Bridgestone Arena on Thursday night.
Arkansas finished the season at 19-12 overall and 8-10 in SEC play. The Razorbacks have struggled as of late, losing five of their final seven games of the regular season. Auburn finished the regular season at 20-11 overall and 10-8 in SEC play. The Tigers also limped into the SEC tourney with eight losses in their final 12 games of the year.
Which previously Top 10 ranked team will show out in the Music City? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Auburn on Thursday, March 9 to find out.
Auburn vs Arkansas best odds
Auburn vs Arkansas picks and predictions
Despite their mediocre records and recent dips in performance, both programs are securely into the NCAA tournament picture. Arkansas is ranked 18th in the NET rankings and is currently a projected No. 9 seed in ESPN’s Bracketology, while Auburn is 32nd in the NET and also a projected No. 9 seed.
These two programs only met once in the regular season and it was early in the SEC schedule on January 7. Auburn won that game at home in a convincing fashion with a final score of 72-59. It was one of only four times all season the Razorbacks were held below 60 points in a game.
In that first matchup, Arkansas shot a dreadful 2-for-16 from 3-point land and 19-for-32 from the free throw line. That poor shooting performance countered its ability to dominate the glass 42-30.
That game was a fair representation of the Razorbacks' weaknesses, as they rank 299th in 3-point percentage at 32.1% and 287th in free throw percentage at 69.0%. On the other end, the Tigers are fantastic at guarding the 3-point line, forcing opponents to shoot a miserable 28.8% from downtown — good for fifth in the country.
The Razorbacks are also fantastic at guarding the 3-point line. They only allow 5.3 made threes per game (ranked eighth in the country) and their opponents shoot 30.9% from downtown (37th). Both teams rank in the Top 100 in points allowed per game, with Arkansas allowing 67.2 and Auburn allowing 66.8.
The first matchup totaled 131 points, yet this opening total is 145. The Tigers' strengths match Athe Razorbacks' weaknesses and vice versa. With two evenly talented strong defenses going up against each other, I really like the Under here on a high number.
My best bet: Under 145 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Auburn vs Arkansas spread analysis
Arkansas went 3-1 in neutral site games this year, including a win over San Diego State. However, it went 2-7 in true road games, so it has not been great away from home. The Razorbacks best win of the season is either against San Diego State on a neutral site or at Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Auburn is 2-1 in neutral site games and 4-8 in true road games. Only five of its opponents were ranked when it played and it went 2-3 in those games. One of those wins was Arkansas and the other was the last game of the regular season against an injured Tennessee team.
The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games, and the Tigers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. This game is truly a toss-up in many of the trends.
I would not be surprised to see either team come out on top in this game, hence the pick'em opening line. I do believe that Auburn has a slightly better defense and will force Arkansas to make threes to win. I would lean toward Auburn against the spread, but do not love either side.
Auburn vs Arkansas Over/Under analysis
Arkansas games typically get high totals like this one and it has led to a favorable 17-13-1 record to the Under. When teams focus on slowing down the pace, they can make the Razorbacks play lower scoring games.
Auburn has been held Under 70 points in 12 games this season and Under 65 points in six. Meanwhile, Arkansas has been held Under 70 points in 11 games and Under 65 points seven times.
If this game goes to overtime, then I would be worried about the total, but otherwise I really like the Under here. Playing on a neutral court can often lead to shooting issues and both teams defend shooters extremely well. I really do not see both teams reaching 70 here.
Auburn vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Arkansas has a 13-17-1 O/U record this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Arkansas.
Auburn vs Arkansas game info
| Conference: | SEC Second Round |
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Thursday, March 9, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
