Arizona vs Stanford Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Pounce on Big Spread

A popular pick to win the 2023 Pac-12 Tournament, the No. 2 seeded Arizona Wildcats (25-6) begin play Thursday night after a first-round bye. 

They’ll face off against the No. 10 seeded Stanford Cardinal (14-18), a team that doesn’t look like much from their record but may be playing its best basketball of the season.

The Cardinal seem to be getting things together after a slow start to the year. They pulled off a comfortable win over Utah in the opening round and have proven capable of hanging with this Arizona team in an 88-79 victory over the Wildcats on February 11. 

Will Arizona roll, or will Stanford stay strong?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Stanford vs. Arizona on Thursday, March 9 to find out. 

Arizona vs Stanford best odds

Arizona vs Stanford picks and predictions

Tommy Lloyd has racked up an 85.3% winning percentage since taking over the Arizona program in 2021, winning 58 games and losing just 10 times. The Wildcats are certainly a threat to cut down the nets in Las Vegas as the No. 2 seed. 

The Wildcats check in at 11th in KenPom, behind only UCLA (second) in the conference. Their success is driven by a high-powered offense that ranks fourth in points per game (83.1) and sixth in adjusted efficiency. They have a fearsome tandem of big men in Azuolas Tubelis (19.9 ppg) and Oumar Ballo (13.9 ppg), two adept finishers at the rim who also combine to average nearly 18 rebounds per game. 

Their matchup in the first round is a confusing Stanford team that has been all over the map this season. It started Pac-12 play with seven straight losses — a surprise considering this is a veteran team that had relatively high expectations entering this season. 

The Cardinal have hit a switch since then, winning nine of their last 15 games. Head coach Jerod Haase says that Stanford is a different team than it was in late December. He noted that his team has continued to improve as the season has continued, which is evident to see for observers at home on the couch. 

The current line of Arizona -8.5 seems a bit low considering this is a No. 2 seed facing off with a No. 10 seed, so let’s dive in to see if we can explain this line. 

For all of Arizona’s success this season, it failed to meet outsized expectations in the betting market. The Wildcats are 14-16-1 ATS this season including a 9-11 ATS record in conference play. The opposite can be said of Stanford, who despite the struggles at points this season is 17-15 ATS and 12-9 in conference play. 

It was a mystery to me why Stanford was playing so poorly early in the season, but it’s clear that something finally clicked. The Cardinal have been a Top-5 3-point shooting team since the start of February, giving them a shot in just about any game in this tournament. Arizona can be prone to the 3-ball, ranking 312th in 3-point attempt rate allowed and 91st in 3-point defense against the average opponent (Haslametrics). 

These teams played only once this season, which resulted in a surprising 88-79 Cardinal win. Haase was able to scheme up ways to limit Tubelis, who finished with just four points in 17 minutes while dealing with foul trouble. 

All of the reasons above help explain the single-digit line, but I still can’t back Stanford in this spot and will instead by targeting the favorite. I’m concerned with the health of Cardinal leading scorer Spencer Jones (13.9 ppg), who injured his finger late in the Utah game. He wound up returning but missed his last two shots from the field and bricked three straight free throws, which is highly irregular for a sharpshooter who connects on 78.2% of his free throws. 

Arizona has the revenge angle after losing the regular season game, will be at full strength, and will have an extra day of rest. I doubt Tubelis is kept riding the pine for the majority of this matchup and it’s no sure thing that Stanford gets hot and hits 61.1% of its field goals and 55.6% of its 3-pointers like it did in the first matchup. Those numbers are unsustainable, especially when your best player is dealing with a finger injury. 

I’d play the Wildcats up to -10.

My best bet: Arizona -8.5 (-110 at BetMGM) 

Arizona vs Stanford spread analysis

Text.The spread opened Arizona -8.5 before quickly jumping to -9 at most locations. There’s still -8.5 available as of Thursday morning, but I would anticipate that it’s not around for long. 

I agree with the early money on Arizona. Stanford is playing its best basketball of the season, but there are concerns about Jones’ health in this spot which is huge considering Stanford’s chances rely on getting hot from behind the arc. Jones leads the team in 3-point attempts (5.7) and made threes (2.2) per game on a robust 39%. 

Arizona has typically been profitable as a favorite between 7.5 and 9.5 points, going 3-1 ATS this season in such games. 

Stanford is a difficult team to read considering it played so poorly early on and has been pretty tough as of late. While its performance has certainly been better, only one of its last nine wins has been all that impressive and that’s the Wildcats. Here are the other teams that Stanford has beaten during that stretch, along with their KenPom ranking: Oregon State twice (215), Washington (105), Utah twice (63), Cal (262), Chicago State (293), and Oregon (41).

Arizona vs Stanford Over/Under analysis

This game opened with a massive total of 154.5. There has been a bit of early money on the Under, dropping it to 153.5 at a few books as of writing.

Arizona’s offense is elite by any metric. The Wildcats are proficient in putting the ball in the basket from all areas of the court, ranking ninth in field goal percentage (49.3%) and 25th in 3-point percentage (37.8%). 

This isn’t a particularly difficult matchup against a Cardinal defense that checks in at 159th in adjusted efficiency. Haase’s squad allows opponents to shoot 43.9% from the field (189th) and 35.3% from behind the arc (278th). If they send extra bodies down low to frustrate Tubelis and Ballo, there could be some easy kickouts available to waiting 3-point shooters.

As mentioned early, Stanford has been red-hot shooting the ball and could find some looks against a Wildcats defense that allows a whopping 24.5 3-point attempts per game. Arizona does clean the glass well, ranking fourth in defensive rebounds per game (29.2). That means that second chances will be at a minimum for the Cardinal, so converting on first-chance looks will be paramount. 

I won’t have any action on the total as the Over likely relies on Stanford staying hot from behind the arc, which is a question to me considering how Jones looked at the end of the Utah game. 

Arizona vs Stanford betting trend to know

Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Stanford.

Arizona vs Stanford game info

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