Warriors vs Trail Blazers Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The end of the NBA season is nearly upon us, but while the Portland Trail Blazers have nothing left to play for, the Golden State Warriors are still desperately fighting for play-in positioning. 

My NBA picks and Warriors vs. Trail Blazers predictions dive deep into why I think the NBA odds are much too high on Deandre Ayton on Thursday.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers predictions

My best bet
Deandre Ayton Under 24.5 points (-105 at SportsInteraction)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

Deandre Ayton had one of the more disappointing seasons of any young player in the NBA. After grousing about his role with the highly successful Suns, he suggested he would dominate when given more opportunity as a featured player for the Portland Trail Blazers.

For most of the year, however, Ayton was largely invisible, but this is the end of the season when weird box scores abound. Ayton has turned up his game against a variety of weak opposing defenses, putting together some gaudy scoring numbers in the process.

That’s why these Deandre Ayton odds are so high, but also why there’s serious value in taking the Under.

Even with his recent scoring burst, he's still averaging 23.2 points over his last 10 games and 16.8 for the season. His newfound production is inflated by beating up on other bottom-feeding teams, of which the Golden State Warriors do not qualify.

The Warriors might be fighting for a play-in spot, but they’ve been playing at a higher level than much of the NBA for the past few weeks. The foundation of that strong play has come on the defensive end, where Draymond Green has captained an elite interior defense that’s seen them rank ninth in defense over the past two weeks.

Ayton isn’t the kind to match intensity with a player like Green. While Green is officially questionable for Thursday, the Warriors need to ensure every win. If he does play, I’d expect Green to enforce his will against Ayton inside and prevent him from getting to his preferred 14-foot jumpers.

Even if Green isn’t able to go, Trayce Jackson-Davis has been playing with amazing energy and even Kevon Looney can comfortably bother Ayton. Ayton practically never gets to the free-throw line either, so if he can’t easily get clean looks from his preferred spots, his scoring floor is incredibly low.

In two games against the Warriors earlier this season, Ayton averaged just 10.5 points, well below his 16.8 season average. While he’s stepped up his productivity across the board since that time, these odds are over-indexing to a handful of good games.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay

Deandre Ayton Under 24.5 points

Warriors -14

Under 222.5

+405 at DraftKings

While some other teams will be taking their foot off the gas this week, the Warriors badly need to win this game. Playoffstatus.com projects them with a 70% chance of escaping the No. 10 seed, but that’s only if they take care of business in Portland. 

That and the fact the Warriors' bench unit is significantly better than the current state of the Blazers' rotation are two big reasons I like a Warriors blowout on Thursday.

Portland's offense has also hit rock bottom lately as they push into full tank mode. They’ve had a 100.3 offensive rating over the past two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass, nearly eight points worse than their season-long mark which already ranked 29th in the NBA.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers odds

Warriors vs Trail Blazers live odds

Warriors vs Trail Blazers opening odds

• Spread: Golden State -14.5 | Portland +14.5
• Moneyline: Golden State -1,200 | Portland +750
• Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5

Warriors vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Warriors opened as -14.5 point favorites over Portland for Thursday, which has fallen as low as -13.5 at some sportsbooks.
  
  
• Golden State is 15-5 against the spread as road favorites.
  
  
• The total for Warriors-Blazers opened at 222.5 with no further movement at the time of writing.
  
  
• The Under is 23-17 in Warriors road games.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers trend

The Warriors are 15-5 against the spread as road favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers.

Warriors vs Trail Blazers game info

Warriors vs Trail Blazers latest injuries

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