No series this postseason will have as many narratives as this second-round matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green openly disdain each other. Green has made the mistake of not taking Anthony Edwards seriously in the past. Minnesota fans still lament drafting Johnny Flynn over Steph Curry.
And then there is how Timberwolves fans feel about Jimmy Butler. Just as true, there is how Butler fails to show up in front of Minnesota fans.
My Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks start by discussing the years of that relationship. Rather, the years of it not existing because the newest Warrior has long been too scared to return to Target Center.
Tip-off comes at 9:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 6.
Who will win Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 1?
Is it a disservice or a reward?
Either the NBA did a disservice to the Golden State Warriors by making them tip off a second-round series fewer than 46 hours after they won a Game 7 on the road, or the NBA rewarded the Minnesota Timberwolves for winning their first-round series in five games and thus enjoying five days off before this tilt against a tired opponent.
No matter how you frame it, it is a decisive edge for the team that was already younger, more athletic, and deeper.
Minnesota has its work cut out for it in this series, but Golden State going a full seven games against Houston should set up the Timberwolves for a Game 1 victory.
Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet: Jimmy Butler Under 22.5 points (-120 at bet365)
When Timberwolves fans scoff at Jimmy Butler, calling him “General Soreness” or wondering why he has not played in Minnesota in nearly four years, they do so with good reason. Citing “general soreness” as an excuse to miss games early in the 2018 season deserves long-term ridicule, and ducking out of four of six games in front of Target Center crowds since that ignominious departure reeks of cowardice.
But the eyerolls at Butler go beyond these narratives. They show up in stats, too.
Simply put, Jimmy Butler in front of a hostile crowd is not the killer that narratives want him to be.
In two games back in front of a full Target Center crowd since his acrimonious departure, Butler has averaged 14 points on 35% shooting. In one game back in Target Center, when fewer than 2,000 fans were allowed in because of pandemic protocols, Butler scored 30 points on 47% shooting. In four games against the Timberwolves outside of Minnesota, he has averaged 19.25 points on 51% shooting.
This goes beyond the Timberwolves. In eight revenge spots at his abandoned franchises — including the 76ers and that Heat game in March, but excluding that pandemic-altered game in Minneapolis in 2021 — Butler has averaged 17.25 points on 48% shooting, including 18% from beyond the arc. He has skipped 11 other possible games in Minnesota or Philadelphia.
In 12 games in his new homes against his past employers, Butler has averaged 21.3 points on 49% shooting, including 52% from beyond the arc, skipping just two chances to run up those scores.
Those are all regular-season numbers. It must be acknowledged that he excelled at Philadelphia in the 2022 playoffs. Then again, Miami lost two of the three road games in that series, Butler shooting 29% from deep on the road and 36% from deep at home, taking two more 3-pointers per game while on the road. In fact, a notable portion of his improved scoring on the road came at the free throw line, not exactly something to rely on in the postseason anymore.
Jimmy Butler has long ducked the Target Center crowd. There is a reason his most memorable moment as a Timberwolf came in a practice. Golden State should not look to him for points on the road in this series.
Warriors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Jimmy Butler Under 22.5 points
Warriors team total Under 100.5
Timberwolves moneyline
Minnesota amazed even itself with how well it responded to preparation time in last year’s playoffs. The Timberwolves loudly credited that for their defense in the 4-0 sweep of the Suns and then also the 2-0 start on the road against Denver.
Young teams benefit more from practice and preparation than veteran teams do. The younger team needs that emphasis, lacking some of the institutional knowledge and some of the discipline of veterans. The five days that Minnesota has had off should provide value on its defense, particularly after Golden State just struggled to 103 points in a Game 7 against a lesser defense, not to mention while Steph Curry battles some amount of a thumb injury.
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Warriors vs Timberwolves odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves live odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +6 | Minnesota -6
- Moneyline: Golden State +190 | Minnesota -230
- Over/Under: Over 207.5 | Under 207.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some books opened with this spread favoring Minnesota by 5.5 points, the market quickly moving to -6 and then to -7. Consider that movement a direct reflection of Golden State’s fatigue.
- It is surprising to see the total slip up by a point to 208.5. Combining that with the spread movement suggests the Warriors’ defense should be the weak point amid their exhaustion.
- Both Minnesota and Golden State surged to the end the season, the Timberwolves going 17-4 outright after Julius Randle returned from an adductor strain in early March and the Warriors going 23-8 outright after trading for Jimmy Butler.
- In those same stretches, Minnesota went 13-8 against the spread while Golden State went 17-12-2 ATS.
Warriors vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota has gone 9-4 ATS at home since Julius Randle returned to the lineup in the first days of March. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Warriors vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Tuesday, 5-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Warriors vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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