Warriors vs Timberwolves Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Rudy's Back, Minnesota's Tough to Stop

The Golden State Warriors’ surge in February has quickly become a distant memory. Golden State went 13-3 in the 30 days beginning Feb. 1, with one of those losses coming in overtime. It was not just that the Warriors had an easier stretch — though facing tanking teams like the Raptors, Hornets, Grizzlies, and Jazz twice certainly helped — as they also went 12-4 against the spread.

Golden State has since stumbled to a 4-6 outright record and is suddenly in jeopardy of missing even the Play-In Tournament. A loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight as 2.5-point underdogs in the NBA odds would shrink the Warriors’ cushion to just one game.

To some degree, every team in the NBA should want to be the one to push Golden State over that ledge. Someone has to slay the dynasty once and for all and the Timberwolves would be glad to help that cause.

At home and with a rest advantage, perhaps Minnesota should be favored by more than a bucket tonight, so let’s take the short home favorite in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Warriors vs the Timberwolves on March 24, with tip set for 7:00 ET.

Warriors vs Timberwolves odds

Warriors vs Timberwolves predictions

Simply enough, this line is surprisingly short. If the Minnesota Timberwolves had not played and played well on Friday, then perhaps a spread like this would have made sense. The Timberwolves needed that 104-91 win against the Cavaliers to comfortably know Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid were back in the lineup.

Minnesota had survived the last 1.5 games without any true NBA center and the last three games without the certain Defensive Player of the Year. While the Timberwolves had gone 2-1 outright in that stretch and 3-0 against the spread, only so much can be trusted when playing Kyle Anderson and Luka Garza as your interior presences.

Gobert and Reid returned to the lineup on Friday, with the latter getting a rare start with the night’s giveaway of a beach towel featuring his name in massive print. Minnesota held Cleveland below 100 points for just the eighth time this season.

Partly as a result of those injuries, partly due to Karl-Anthony Towns' continued absence due to a meniscus surgery, the Timberwolves have not looked like a title contender lately. In the last three weeks, they rank just No. 11 in net rating. Yet, they went 6-3 outright and against the spread in that stretch. Minnesota is still finding ways to produce results.

That is the mark of a great team.

It is what the Golden State Warriors used to enjoy, and they enjoyed it anew in February. Golden State ranked No. 3 in the NBA in net rating from Feb. 1 to March 2. Sure, it trailed Minnesota, which provides some intrigue today specifically, but on a broader scale, the Warriors appeared to be putting folks on notice.

Then came March, and Golden State revealed it is exactly who we thought it was, a flawed roster with some aging, mercurial pieces. When the Dubs find their stride, they remind us of the 2010s. When they don’t, they look like a team that will lose in the Play-In Tournament.

In 10 games since March 3, the Warriors have ranked No. 17 in the NBA in net rating, 6.4 points worse per 100 possessions than the Timberwolves.

An argument can be made that dropoff was entirely due to Stephen Curry’s ankle injury. Per StatMuse, Golden State has a net rating of +2.6 in Curry’s last 10 games. He missed three in the March stretch with a worried ankle, and yes, the Warriors’ net rating was -4.4 in those three games.

But the same arguments can be made that Gobert’s absence deflated Minnesota’s numbers. The Timberwolves played three games with Garza as a primary piece of the rotation and the defensive rating understandably fell off.

A spread within a bucket would make sense if Curry was in and Gobert was out. With Gobert back — and Friday proved he is genuinely back, not rushing to the court prematurely — then this number should be -3.5 or -4 given Minnesota is at home and has had a slightly more relaxed schedule in the last week than Golden State has.

My best bet: Timberwolves -2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Warriors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Timberwolves -2.5

Warriors team total Under 109.5

Mike Conley Over 11.5 points

+ODDS at DraftKings

Gobert is assured his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award this season. His return alone should instill faith in a Minnesota defense that is — look, this is just a truth, it is not meant as a shot — better without Towns. Losing Gobert for three games made the Timberwolves worry, and they're two points worse in defensive rating in six games without him this season.

Mike Conley has picked up some of the scoring load without Towns around, averaging 13.7 points in 10 games without Towns and 10.5 with him this year. It took a few games to recognize he should fill that need, scoring in the single digits in the first three games since Towns’ meniscus injury and then averaging 17.2 in the next five games, clearing this points prop in four of those five games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has moved in one direction in the last 24 hours. It opened on Saturday afternoon with the Warriors as 4.5-point underdogs at FanDuel, the only widely available book to open this game before nightfall. When others brought it to the board, the consensus set Golden State as a 2.5-point underdog.

The first number would have made more sense, and there are no known lingering injury worries around the Timberwolves.

Anthony Edwards and Gobert are the two Minnesota players who could move a line that much. Edwards plays through just about any ailment he suffers, and Gobert’s absence would create a clear jump in the total … which went from 217.5 on Saturday to 219.5 on Sunday morning.

Again, the expectation is Gobert is good to go, but those numbers raise an eyebrow. Most likely, the total has simply climbed too high.

Warriors vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

Minnesota is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games, exceeding expectations by an average of 10.2 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Timberwolves.

Warriors vs Timberwolves game info

Warriors vs Timberwolves latest injuries

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