Warriors vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Bridges Likes His Curry Mild

Whether it's a championship hangover or a glimpse into just how fleeting their window is, the Golden State Warriors are reaching for the panic button. 

They badly need a get-right win, but instead, they'll face the Phoenix Suns tonight, who have weathered offseason dysfunction and early injuries to start out at 8-5 among the better teams in a competitive and highly surprising Western Conference.

NBA odds are marking this game as a one-possession matchup — where do we find the betting edge?

Get the breakdown with our Warriors vs. Suns NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 16. 

Warriors vs Suns best odds

Warriors vs Suns picks and predictions

So, I'll just get it out of the way from the jump. Tonight, we're gonna fade Steph Curry.

I know what you're thinking: "Fade Steph Curry? When he's molten-hot? Are you losing your f***ing mind?"

Maybe, but with an uncertain spread, a complete juxtaposition of paces warring for the total, and Chris Paul's uncertain status wiping Suns player props from the early-morning board, it's probably the most appealing option. 

Yes, Curry has been on a tear to start the season, averaging 31.5 points on an insane 69% true shooting, but there are several things working against him tonight, chiefly the presence of one Mikal Bridges. 

Bridges is an absolute menace. Arguably the very best perimeter defender in the NBA today, he's a Venus Fly Trap of length and instinct that can swallow any attacker whole. Not a year ago, he harassed Curry into the worst shooting night of his career, a 12-point, 4-for-21 nightmare.

Curry was also held to just 21 points in Golden State's prior meeting with Phoenix on October 25 — a season-low if you discount the 37-point blowout of San Antonio in which he only played 27 minutes. Bridges not only frustrates the much smaller Curry with strong positioning but is exactly the kind of long-limbed menace that's tough for Steph to shoot over.

Also working against the Warriors is Phoenix's pace, especially if Paul winds up playing tonight (which seems more likely than not, given the high-profile national TV matchup and the prolonged rest he's had since sustaining a heel injury). CP3 grinds the Suns down to one of the league's slowest paces, and while Cam Payne isn't as deliberate, having Bridges in Curry's jersey all night will force the Dubs to burn more clock.

Some may see this as flying too close to the sun (pun possibly intended), but Steph will have his work cut out for him to pile up points in this matchup.

My best bet: Stephen Curry Under 28.5 points (-117)

Warriors vs Suns spread analysis

If you're backing early-season trends, the Warriors have to be a fade on the road. They're winless away from Chase Center (0-7 straight up on the season) and have only one away cover against a bloated spread in a game where they sat all their starters. 

But the early season's a small sample size, and the Warriors, despite some early trouble on defense, are clearly better than they look currently.

Paul's potential absence is definitely noteworthy, but the Suns maintained surprisingly good form without him last year. That said, their defense has slipped noticeably the past three games without him, giving up an average of 114.6 points vs. a season-long average of 106.6 opponent ppg, which is best in the NBA. 

Phoenix will be looking for a get-right spot after back-to-back losses and sits 5-2 ATS at home this season. 

With Paul's uncertainty and Golden State's confounding form early in the season, I'm not huge on what's essentially a pick 'em. This game should be close, and the Dubs could break out of their funk at a moment's notice, especially now that they're done force-feeding James Wiseman minutes he clearly isn't ready for. 

Warriors vs Suns Over/Under analysis

Neither of these teams is a magnet for Overs or Unders this season, with the Warriors at 7-6-1 O/U and the Suns at 5-7-1, with home and away splits basically reflective. 

The total sitting at 227 is definitely on the lower side for the Warriors, and again, is something I'm hesitant to touch given CP3's status. 

Paul might be one of the biggest swings for a total, not only in raising the Suns' defensive floor, but suffocating the game's pace. The Suns won't look to push the tempo much with the Point God running the show. It's effective and unflappable — even if the Warriors want to play fast and loose, Paul won't take the bait. 

These sides have combined to average 229.9 ppg, while allowing 223.6, a gap mostly attributable to the Suns' second-best net rating. Factoring in Bridges' point-of-attack defense and Phoenix's potentially glacial pace, this should trend to an Under, but again, too much uncertainty at this point in the day. 

Warriors vs Suns betting trend to know

The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Suns.

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