Our NBA player prop projections are locked in for tonight’s must-watch Play-In Tournament showdown between the veteran Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns, with the model flagging several high-value opportunities.
By breaking down the data and stacking it up against current market lines, we’ve identified where the strongest edges lie.
These Warriors vs. Suns predictions aren’t based on feel — they’re backed by the numbers.
If you’re building out your card, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Friday, April 17.
Warriors vs Suns computer picks for April 17
 Warriors |
 Suns |
|---|---|
| Curry u26.5 points -105 |
Booker u27.5 points -120 |
| Green o6.5 rebounds +115 |
Green o3.5 assists +130 |
| Melton u1.5 threes -160 |
Brooks o1.5 threes -170 |
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Warriors computer picks
Stephen Curry Under 26.5 points (-105)
Projection: 24.0 points
The Golden State Warriors have struggled offensively over their last 25 games, ranking as the fourth-lowest scoring team in the league during that span.
That inefficiency is likely to be amplified against the Phoenix Suns, a team that has played at the slowest home pace in the NBA over the same stretch, potentially shrinking the overall number of possessions.
For an aging Warriors core, that sets up a difficult environment where every bucket will be hard-earned. As a result, much of the offensive burden is expected to fall on Steph Curry, but given the Suns' formula, it will still be tough for the veteran point guard to eclipse this lofty total.
Draymond Green Over 6.5 rebounds (+115)
Projection: 6.8 rebounds
The Warriors have been one of the league’s most effective road rebounding units, ranking fourth in offensive boards over their last 15 away games (13.5 per contest).
That trend opens up an added opportunity for Draymond Green to make an impact on the glass and create extra possessions for Golden State.
De'Anthony Melton Under 1.5 threes (-160)
Projection: 1.4 threes
The Warriors have been one of the least efficient perimeter shooting teams in the league over their last 20 games, ranking 7th-worst in three-point efficiency during that stretch.
That kind of profile doesn’t create an ideal environment for perimeter role players to get into rhythm, which could further limit opportunities for De'Anthony Melton from deep.
Melton has already finished Under 1.5 threes in six of his last 10 games, and with limited spacing and a potentially slower, more controlled game script, that trend is positioned to continue tonight.
Suns computer picks
Devin Booker Under 27.5 points (-120)
Projection: 27.08 points
From a scoring standpoint, the Phoenix Suns have averaged just 112.0 points per game at home, ranking second-lowest in the league this season.
That kind of offensive limitation puts added pressure on Devin Booker to carry the scoring load, and leaning on that outcome becomes a risky path if Phoenix wants to keep its playoff hopes alive.
Jalen Green Over 3.5 assists (+130)
Projection: 3.6 assists
Jalen Green has cleared the 3.5-assist line in four of his last 10 games, a trend that reflects how his role has gradually expanded beyond pure scoring into more on-ball creation.
Dillon Brooks Over 1.5 threes (-170)
Projection: 2.2 threes
Against the Warriors, the matchup sets up well for perimeter volume, as opposing starting power forwards have attempted the fourth-most threes in the league over the last 10 games (5.7 per contest).
That kind of defensive profile creates room for Dillon Brooks to stay active from beyond the arc and find consistent looks from deep.
How to watch Warriors vs Suns tonight
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, April 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Not intended for use in MA.
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