The NBA's hottest team hosts its best thus far Tuesday night as the Memphis Grizzlies welcome the Golden State Warriors to FedEx Forum.
The Grizzlies have reeled off nine straight wins, and now sit fourth in the West, closer to the No. 1 seed than No. 5 Dallas is to them.
Warriors vs Grizzlies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Golden State opened as a 1.5 favorite and has since seen its spread grow to -2.5, with -2 still available at one major book as of Tuesday morning. The total is mostly available at 220 after opening at 218.5.
Warriors vs Grizzlies predictions
Predictions made on 1/11/2022 at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Grizzlies game info
• Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Tuesday, January 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV
Warriors vs Grizzlies betting preview
Warriors: Draymond Green PF (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Gary Payton II PG (Questionable), Otto Porter Jr. SF (Questionable).
Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks SF (Out), Steven Adams C (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Grizzlies are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Grizzlies.
Warriors vs Grizzlies picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
This Grizzlies team is extremely dangerous right now.
They've won nine straight games, have all the confidence in the world, and are the league's second-best offensive and fifth-best defensive team over that span. Once a young up-and-comer that seemed destined for play-in contention again this year, they're looking like a safe bet for a Top-4 seed. At worst.
Memphis has a deep rotation that's gotten most of its bodies back from its share of the requisite injury/COVID tag-team most teams have weathered. The Grizzlies have shown they can compete with any team in the NBA, and can go with a very wide variety of lineup permutations.
But, of course, the last time the Grizzlies lost a game was to the Warriors, 113-104, back on December 23. The Grizz haven't scored fewer points in a game since, averaging 117.7, third in the NBA, and this Golden State defense won't be nearly as formidable without Draymond Green as a roaming deterrent.
Not only is Green's absence a big minus for the Dubs, but Gary Payton II, who's following closely in his dad's footsteps as an absolute straitjacket defender, is also questionable. This is unideal given that Memphis PG Ja Morant is the reigning Player of the Week and has been gutting teams as surgically as anyone in the league right now. Morant's looking like an All-NBA lock, and at this rate, might even play his way into fringe MVP status.
The Warriors do have MVP odds leader Stephen Curry, but this feels like the type of game he'll have to go nuclear in without Green and Payton around to inhibit Memphis' explosive offensive potential. Klay Thompson's still on strict minutes restrictions, Jordan Poole's had one good shooting game in the past month, and the absence of Green's lightning-quick playmaking reads will generate fewer open looks.
Also, while the Grizzlies struggled mightily defending the 3-pointer early in the season (something Golden State is obviously built to exploit), they've allowed the league's 12th-lowest 3-point percentage to opponents over the last 10 games — a huge improvement.
Overall, this spot just seems generous to give the Grizz points, with the Warriors suddenly looking vulnerable (just .500 over their past six games) and limping into the NBA's hottest team's raucous arena without their best two-way player.
The Grizzlies feel like they can beat anyone right now, and they're good enough that they can in this spot.
Prediction: Grizzlies +2.5 (-110)
As noted above, the Grizzlies are scoring at sky-high clips on their current streak, a rate that would comfortably lead the league over the course of the season.
Also as noted above, Golden State will be without the NBA's best defender, and possibly another All-Defense caliber one as well — severe hits to their league-leading D.
Both teams are capable of great two-way play, but with GSW so fractured on defense, Memphis won't have to work as hard for buckets, milking less clock and forcing the Warriors' capable hands scoring-wise. Few players in NBA history are as adept at "f-you" scoring runs as Curry, who will have to take on more playmaking onus without Green, but is more than qualified.
Thus, while this game projects on paper as relatively neutral-paced, it should play out differently. The Grizzlies are a brash young squad that doesn't like to take their feet off the gas. They'll attack Golden State's rusted armor relentlessly and try to turn this into a shootout.
Prediction: Over 220 (-110)
The importance of Green's absence here can't be understated. He's not only the league's single most impactful defender, but the Warriors' emotional lynchpin and resident enforcer.
This game is going to get chippy. The Grizzlies are a physical, athletic unit that runs with young legs and has a flair for trying to embarrass opponents, whether with emphatic alley-oops or 73-point victories. They talk a ton of shit and have very thoroughly backed it up as the NBA's best team over the past month. They've always played the Warriors tough, and know that this is their moment for an absolute statement win.
There's a lot to like about Memphis in this matchup. Curry can kill any team, but it's going to take a lot to fend off this Grizzly attack. Take Beale Street to win outright.
Pick: Grizzlies ML (+120)
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