Death, taxes, and the Miami Heat remaining feisty in the Eastern Conference.
Miami’s 12-5 outright record at home should worry the Minnesota Timberwolves, especially as Minnesota has stumbled through a letdown stretch lately.
My Timberwolves vs. Heat predictions mostly expect late-afternoon incompetence, some of that a credit to the home team.
Read more in my NBA picks for Saturday, January 3.
Timberwolves vs Heat prediction
Timberwolves vs Heat best bet: Under 239.0 (-110)
The Minnesota Timberwolves have increasingly struggled of late, something that most shows up defensively, but those defensive lapses then disrupt their own offense.
Minny's offense already struggles against the Heat, making the Miami Heat a tough matchup for the road team. Bam Adebayo can suffocate Julius Randle as the hub of the Wolves’ offense, and this could turn into a grind of an afternoon.
Without Randle demanding any extra attention, the Heat can throw defenders at Anthony Edwards. Few teams escape a mismatch against one or the other; that is the Timberwolves’ entire design.
Miami holds up defensively, though the Heat’s offensive rating has fallen to No. 20 in the NBA in the last 10 games, another inevitability up there with death and taxes.
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Timberwolves vs Heat same-game parlay
Adebayo holds up against Randle’s ball-dominant work, which forces Minnesota's big man to move the ball. In two games last year, Randle totaled nine and six assists against the Heat while scoring 30 points.
Similarly, Miami’s perimeter defenders can hold up against Edwards better than most teams’, partly because Randle does not demand more attention.
Timberwolves vs Heat SGP
- Under 239.0
- Julius Randle Over 5.5 assists
- Anthony Edwards Under 29.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Depth Prevails
Minnesota is the better and deeper team.
If this game remains ugly and close late, some faith in the Timberwolves’ array of offensive options should back this moneyline.
Timberwolves vs Heat SGP
- Under 239.0
- Julius Randle Over 5.5 assists
- Anthony Edwards Under 29.5 points
- Timberwolves moneyline
Timberwolves vs Heat odds
- Spread: Timberwolves -2.5 (-110) | Heat +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -150 | Heat +125
- Over/Under: Over 239 (-110) | Under 239 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Heat betting trend to know
Both these matchups last season fell short of their totals. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Heat.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Saturday, January 3, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Timberwolves vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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