Thunder vs Warriors Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

Farmer's Prediction: Look for the Thunder to get off to a fast start against the depleted Warriors.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Jan 2, 2026 • 15:22 ET • 4 min read

NBA

Match starts: 4 hrs
GS
55 %
OKC
45 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Oklahoma City -7.5 (-110) Oklahoma City -7.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the OKC Thunder NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the OKC Thunder NBA

At some point, the NBA will realize it could charge more for a better product.

The 82-game schedule makes it too logical for the Golden State Warriors to sit their stars in what should be a loss tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

In the long run, this loss benefits Golden State.

My Thunder vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks look past this exasperation and find some value in an early Oklahoma City bet. Tip comes at 10 ET on Friday, January 2.

Thunder vs Warriors prediction

Thunder vs Warriors best bet: Thunder First Half -7.5 (-110 at bet365)

The Golden State Warriors were already nine-point underdogs before announcing they would sit Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green tonight.

Golden State had plenty of reason to assume this would be a loss, and thus it could at least gain some rest and health by waving a preemptive white flag.

Thanks, 82-game NBA schedule.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will probably sit their stars in the fourth quarter, a luxury enjoyed far too often by Oklahoma City. That sparks doubt in any full-game spread considerations.

But how confident are you that Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, and De’Anthony Melton can stay within even single digits of the Thunder in the first half?

Golden State is already an immensely flawed team, made evident by Green’s continued theatrics on the sideline.

The Warriors are no longer a contender. Expecting a further-depleted Golden State to stay within any range of the best team in the NBA is nothing but foolish.

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Thunder vs Warriors same-game parlay

A Thunder blowout should feature lazy second-half defense, sparking both an Over and a paper-thin scoring outburst from Brandin Podziemski, the last remaining scorer active for the Warriors tonight. 

Thunder vs Warriors SGP

  • Oklahoma City Thunder 1H -7.5
  • Over 226.5
  • Brandin Podziemski Over 14.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Shai isn't Blowout Proof!

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has fallen short of this prop in three of his last four games, two of those moments coming courtesy of blowouts. A blowout should keep his workload below 30 minutes tonight. 

Thunder vs Warriors SGP

  • Thunder 1H -7.5
  • Over 226.5
  • Brandin Podziemski Over 14.5 points
  • Shai Gilegous-Alexander Under 30.5 points

Thunder vs Warriors odds

  • Spread: Thunder -13.5 | Warriors +13.5
  • Moneyline: Thunder -650 | Warriors +475
  • Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5

Thunder vs Warriors betting trend to know

Golden State’s last four games have gone Over their totals. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Warriors.

How to watch Thunder vs Warriors

Location Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Date Friday, January 2, 2026
Tip-off 10:00 p.m. ET
TV Prime

Thunder vs Warriors latest injuries

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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