It’s time for free agency: the NBA’s second season, where we swap Nikola Jokic for Shams Charania and are fixated on WojBombs more than bombs from Steph Curry.
While summer player movement represents a different form of entertainment, it’s a crucial prologue to each season, especially given the current league landscape, with NBA odds in heavy flux.
The Nuggets are deserving champions, but they aren't viewed as a dynasty-in-the-making like the Warriors or the Spurs before them. In fact, many teams may sense their window is open enough to swing for the fences at a time when league-wide parity has never been higher.
And with several franchises also feeling a sense of urgency with frustrated stars, aging cores, or the impetus to get over a playoff hump, there are plenty of plausible scenarios for trades in a weak free-agency class.
We’re breaking down the contenders and seeing which teams' NBA championship odds are likely to shift over the offseason.
2023-24 NBA title odds
NBA championship odds to watch this offseason
Miami Heat (+1,400)
Despite either winning the Eastern Conference or coming within a single shot of it in three of the past four seasons, sportsbooks are still tepid on the Heat, pricing them fourth in the conference, and eighth overall.
It’s a bit of a misnomer. Yes, Miami did get lucky to avoid a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo, face a mismatched Knicks unit, and have the Celtics semi-implode, becoming just the second 8-seed ever to make the Finals.
But they did so without Tyler Herro, and found a competent, sustainable rotation with him sidelined. Thus arms Pat Riley — who has already proven very willing to mortgage Miami’s future for shrewd win-now moves — with a valuable trade chip.
Whether Herro, picks, and filler are enough to tip the odds for Damian Lillard’s next team in their favor remains to be seen, but Riley’s never been one to shy away from making an offseason splash — especially with this roster on the cusp of a title.
If Lillard lands in South Beach (currently +225 at DraftKings), Miami would likely be priced among the East’s top tier, and other potential upgrades could still see them move into three-digit territory.
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L.A. Clippers (+1,800)
If there's a team that's quietly panicking right now, it's probably the Clippers.
Four years ago, they lit all future roster flexibility on fire (including trading an embryonic Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) to acquire Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, who have since been as much living, breathing ER episodes as basketball players. The goal was to get a title; the reality is that a WCF they had no actual chance at winning's as close as they've come.
ESPN's Zach Lowe (who knows a thing or two about a thing or two) has been not-to-covertly musing on his Lowe Post podcast that the Clippers might be open to getting out from under that burden.
How exactly this would unfold remains unclear, although the Knicks are reported as interested in PG. Russell Westbrook (-260 to remain with LAC at DraftKings) could also be on the move after he salvaged his trade value in the playoffs. A Leonard trade seems somewhat less likely given the market incongruity with how spotty his health record has been.
In any case, the intent of shedding George would be to regain some financial flexibility and draft equity, which would almost certainly result in the Clippers taking a step back in the championship chase.
Whether L.A.'s top brass is inclined to pull the plug remains to be seen, but if Lowe's talking about it as much as he has, there's probably some substance to it.
Dallas Mavericks (+2,000)
It's never a great situation for a franchise to be pondering its lottery fate as its generational talent enters his prime, but that's exactly what the Mavericks were faced with a couple months ago, shortly after pillaging their depth to land Kyrie Irving.
And while Luka Doncic is still under contract for several more seasons, only a naive optimist would say there's no cause for concern.
Irving's a -500 favorite at DraftKings to remain with the Mavs, but just what kind of contract he inks will go a long way to determining Dallas' viability to upgrade the rest of its roster. The Mavs own most of their future picks (likely conveying a Top-10 protected pick to the Knicks next season, but own all their first-rounders through 2028). They could be players in a trade market that likely values cheap team building through draft equity in the wake of the new CBA and harsher tax penalties.
Mark Cuban knows the value of keeping a Hall-of-Famer happy in Dallas and that this offseason is a crucial inflection point in Luka's relationship with the team. Cuban's seldom quiet — it's unlikely he'll be in this spot.
NBA title odds movement - sleeper picks
Philadelphia 76ers (+1,300)
The Sixers are probably keeping James Harden, and know they need to upgrade the roster. The good news is they have a relentlessly creative GM helming that effort, and are armed with lots of draft equity and Tobias Harris' expiring wooly mammoth of a contract, which they can get far more than a Crumbl Cookie for.
New Orleans Pelicans (+4,000)
There's just way too much smoke around this whole Zion Williamson situation, and too many rival teams that are probably inclined to take a flier on the All-Star forward when his trade value couldn't possibly be lower.
Still, the returns on an All-NBA talent (injury and side-chick concerns aside) would be a boon to a team that's already going to benefit from upside and continuity next season. If Zion does get dealt, the Pelicans' title odds are likely to spike with the market no longer sweating his uncertainty.
Sacramento Kings (+5,500)
Sacramento just cleared a bunch of cap room by jettisoning Richaun Holmes, and presumably letting Harrison Barnes walk. The market is leaning towards Kyle Kuzma getting beamed up, as he's a +150 favorite to land with the Kings if he doesn't remain in Washington.
If the Kings round out their roster with a little more depth and a fair bit more defense, they could be a trendy sleeper pick, currently priced closest to a troubled franchise like the Hawks. It wouldn't shock me if they're one of the squads with sharp action driving a shorter price as the offseason moves on.
