Thanks to a couple of terrific performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Oklahoma City Thunder are up 2-0 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals.
SGA has been filling up the hoop, but I'm fading the 2025 NBA MVP on his lofty points prop in Game 3 on Saturday night. Here are my favorite SGA player props and NBA picks for Game 3 between the Thunder and Timberwolves on May 24.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went just 10-27 from the floor (0-4 from deep) in Game 1, but still finished with 31 points thanks in large part to 14 free throws.
He was more efficient in Game 2 when he dropped 38 points on 12-21 shooting. However, with the series heading to Minnesota for Game 3 and the Timberwolves backed against the wall, I'm fading SGA on his scoring prop.
Keep in mind that while SGA led the NBA in points per game (32.7) during the regular season, he was significantly less efficient on the road. He shot 53.9% from the field and 39.6% from deep at home, but that dropped to 50.2 FG% and 35.3 3PT% in away games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves had the sixth-best defensive rating during the regular season while playing at the seventh-slowest pace. The Thunder played at their usual breakneck tempo in the first two rounds (pace of 101.2), but Minny has slowed them down this series (pace of 96.5).
The Timberwolves made the mistake of defending SGA 1-on-1 way too much in the first two games. He's been able to shake that solitary defender, and when he gets into the paint, he's either torched Rudy Gorbert or drawn the foul.
Near the end of Game 2, we finally saw coach Chris Finch send an extra defender at SGA to get the ball out of his hands. It was too late to make a difference in that contest, but expect more double-teams and help defenders in Game 3. That adjustment, combined with Minnesota's defense and home-court advantage, will result in fewer points for the MVP.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 turnovers
With more double-teams coming his way, expect more passing from SGA and more open looks for his teammates.
SGA has already been racking up assists, dropping nine dimes in Game 1 and adding eight more in Game 2. He's now eclipsed the 6.5-assist mark in seven of his last nine games. He's averaging 17.1 potential assists per game over that span, a number that would have ranked second in the league during the regular season.
More passing and double-teams should also result in an uptick in turnovers. He's turned the ball over at least twice in eight of 13 games during the playoffs. He also averaged 3.0 turnovers per game on the road during the regular season.
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